A last, quick data highlight to cap a summer Friday.
This morning’s preliminary Consumer Confidence data for July is almost a perfect microcosm for the emergent, broader macro reality:
- Against expectations for incremental Improvement, Sentiment deteriorated notably with both Current Conditions and Expectations backsliding.
- Against an expectation for households to express a disinflationary view, Consumer Inflation expectations re-accelerated back toward cycle highs.
No fabricated, over-contextualization necessary.
The final data point to close the week accords with the preponderance of high-frequency and alt data series which have shown the recovery curves crest and begin to roll as business and households stare down a resurgent phantom (viral) menace and the prospects for a procession of rolling shocks as enhanced U.I. benefits expire, PPP fund exhaustion gives way to 2nd wave layoffs, forbearance programs begin to roll off and the push-pull between cyclical recovery and structural damage begins to play out more conspicuously.
Enjoy the weekend. Help someone who needs it. Indulge any closet fetish you may harbor for liquidity narratives imploring you not to put your money up against the guy who creates it!
Christian
