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3Q20 Health Care Themes | Transacting the "New Normal" Please join us on Monday, July 20, 2020 @ 2PM ET - Add to Outlook Calendar Participating Dialing Instructions Toll Free: Toll: UK: 0 Confirmation Number: 13706398 Health Care Subscribers: CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link, materials link and dial-in). |
OVERVIEW
We will be covering Health Care Themes for 3Q20 at 2pm on Monday, July 20, 2020. As 2Q20 moves into the rear-view, expectations appear more difficult to hurdle, especially with the #SecondWave of COVID-19 hitting the Southeast and West in recent weeks. We are focused on Telehealth in particular. On one hand, adoption is well past the tipping point, but if every physician is now offering virtual visits, what role will Teladoc have? We will hit on our outlook into earnings, new themes, and updates to existing datasets.
Health Care
Position Monitor & Micro Quad Set-up for the Quarter
- AMN | A slow recovery in new listings per day appears in line with management's expectations. With the #SecondWave emerging in the Southeast and West, we’ll look at demand for ICU nurses versus demand for elective procedures.
- TDOC | The short case for TDOC years ago has now arrived: every physician offers telemedicine. App downloads are slowing, and in- person medical care is making a recovery.
- ONEM | Our trackers and app download analysis continue to support the long thesis. Soon to IPO, Oak Street Health has a similar business model.
- EXAS | COVID testing volume will offset the drop in Cologuard volume.
- GH | We pushed GH to Short Bias as volume looks better- than- expected for 2Q20. The mix of lung cancer testing remains high suggesting a modest impact from the National Coverage Decision.
- #Micro Quads | Quantitative Analysis of Estimate Trends After 2Q20, the bar is rising quickly.
Telehealth over Next 12 Months
- Here to stay, but what is the over- under and hurdles to adoption? We’ll review our penetration assumptions and outlook.
- ONEM, TDOC, Private Company, and Hospital System App Downloads
- Remote Monitoring and AI are next
Hospital & Staffing Recovery
- AMN Tracker, Earnings Preview
- HCA, THC, UHS Forecast Algorithms
- Health Care Labor Demand
- Spending by Health Status, the COVID-19 Impact on high risk patients avoiding care
- Insured Medical Consumer, a negative mix for providers as commercial mix drops and government rises
- Hospital Cap Expenditures
- HRC Forecast Algorithm for Core Growth
- COVID-19 demand for ICU beds and ventilators versus severe financial pressure
- Recent Field Notes suggest capital budgets are frozen
COVID Testing & Lab Recovery
- Clinical Laboratory Forecast Algorithm
- Genetic Testing Lab Claims into the earnings
- GH, NTRA, NVTA, NEO, Foundation, Tempus, EXAS
- New: PROG, ADPT
- COVID19 Testing trends
10x Genomics (TXG) Initial Look at the Long Case
- NIH Grant Data Analysis, 'Genomic', 'Single-Cell Sequencing'
- Penetration by Organization and Primary Investigator
Health Policy
Making Permanent Emergency Regulations
- Telemedicine – reimbursement and sites of service
- Alternative sites of care (Hospital without walls program) and influence on Cap Expenditures
- Possible vehicles
- Stimulus V
- Appropriations
- Timing
Price Transparency
- Court decision
- Inclusion in Stimulus or other
- Inclusion in Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force Recommendation
- Compliance and implementation
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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