newswire: 7/15/2020
- Facing a shortage of young recruits, the aging Japanese army may need to eventually draft robots. The army has missed its recruiting targets every year since 2014, which is pushing officials to get creative to bolster their ranks. (The Economist)
- NH: We have long commented on the downward spiral in Japan’s fertility rate. One consequence of dropping fertility is fewer young people to fill the military. In 1994 there were over 17 million Japanese between the ages of 18 and 26. In 2018 that number was only 11 million. Japan may have as few as 8 million young adults by 2050. Already in 2018, the military missed its recruitment target by 32%. That percentage will only get worse. See "Japan's Population Falls For Ninth Straight Year."
- South Korea finds itself in a similar problem. Currently, the ROK's military mostly depends on 720,000 young conscripts. Chronic low fertility will reduce that number to as low as 520,00 in a few years. See “South Korea’s Declining Birthrate Means Fewer Soldiers.”
- How will Japan and the ROK make up for the declining number of soldiers? One solution would be to allow women into combat positions, but neither the Japanese nor the Korean military is keen on this idea. A flashier solution would be to invest in combat robots. These probably wouldn’t be the humanoid soldiers or exoskeleton suites you see in sci-fi movies; those ideas aren't ready for prime time. Instead, they would be drone-like vehicles with mounted weapons.
- Still another solution would be allowing adults to serve at older ages. Historically this is how most countries (especially those at war) respond to youth shortages..This approach would complement the robot idea. With mechanical mules taking over some of the heavy lifting, humans can focus more on the cognitive tasks--and many of these can be performed as well or better by experienced personnel over the age of 26.
