HOUSE AND SENATE: The House this week is holding hearings and markup sessions; the Senate is in recess until July 20.
FY2021 APPROPRIATIONS: House appropriators will finish work this week on the remaining FY 2021 appropriations bills in anticipation of floor consideration before the end of July. It appears as though the bills will be divided into two packages for floor votes. The first minibus, which could be considered Wednesday through Friday of next week, will reportedly contain four bills – Agriculture (which includes FDA and other agencies), Interior-Environment (which includes EPA and other agencies), Military Construction-Veterans’ Affairs, and State-Foreign Operations.
CORONAVIRUS PACKAGE: Next week Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell plans to unveil the Senate’s counterproposal to the HEROES Act that the House passed May 15. Democrats would like to see all parties reach an agreement by July 31, when bonus unemployment payments expire. More skeptical Congress-watchers doubt that all the details can be hammered out in such a short timeframe, and feel a more realistic “deadline” could be August 7, when the Senate is scheduled to leave until after Labor Day.
There will be a lot to negotiate, including how to provide liability protection from Covid-related lawsuits for businesses, medical facilities, and schools if they comply with certain guidelines; how much federal aid to provide to state and local governments, including funds targeted for schools; what changes to make to the Paycheck Protection Program; and whether to provide additional direct cash payments to individuals with incomes below a certain cut-off level. There is also discussion, particularly among Administration officials, about whether to include various tax breaks to incentivize the economic recovery. Just as McConnell has said the next bill must include liability protection, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said the bill must include extended unemployment benefits. While the House-passed HEROES Act calls for roughly $3 trillion in federal spending, Leader McConnell would prefer that the Senate package stay more in the $1-trillion range. Whatever McConnell brings to the Senate floor will need 60 votes to pass.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE: The CARES Act provided an extra $600 in weekly unemployment insurance benefits, but that additional amount expires July 31. The HEROES Act that the House passed May 15 would extend that bonus payment through January. The Trump Administration and Senate Republicans believe that the extra $600 payment provides a disincentive for low-wage workers to return to work and would prefer something along the lines of a proposal by Senator Rob Portman that would reduce the $600 bonus and provide an extra $450 a week for employees who return to work.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer opposes the Portman approach and, instead, has partnered with Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden to author a measure that would extend the bonus payments in each state based on economic conditions. The $600-per-week bonus would begin to phase down if a state’s three-month average unemployment rate falls below 11%. At that point, the benefit decreases by $100 for each percentage point decrease in unemployment until the rate falls below 6%.
COMMITTEE ACTION OF NOTE:
- Monday, July 13
- House Appropriations Committee markup of Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies, and Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations bills (1100 Longworth).
- Tuesday, July 14
- House Appropriations Committee markup of Defense; Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bills (1100 Longworth).
- House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight, Management, and Accountability Hearing: “Reviewing Federal and State Pandemic Supply Preparedness and Response” (virtual).
- House Financial Services Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship, and Capital Markets Hearing: “Promoting Economic Recovery: Examining Capital Markets and Worker Protections in the COVID-19 Era” (virtual).
- House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Hearing: “Energy Infrastructure and Environmental Justice: Lessons for a Sustainable Future” (virtual).
- House and Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy Hearing: “Oversight of DOE During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” (hybrid hearing, 2123 Rayburn).
- House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy Virtual Briefing on “Guardrails to Ensure a Safe and Effective COVID-19 Vaccine.”
- House Financial Services Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship and Capital Markets Hearing: Promoting Economic Recovery: Examining Capital Markets and Worker Protections in a COVID-19 Era.
- Wednesday, July 15
- House Appropriations Committee markup of Homeland Security; Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Bills, and the Revised 302bs (1100 Longworth).
- House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Markup of the “Water Resources Development Act of 2020” (2167 Rayburn).
- Thursday, July 16
- House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Hearing: “Protecting Homeowners During the Pandemic: Oversight of Mortgage Servicers’ Implementation of the CARES Act” (virtual).
- Friday, July 17
- House Small Business Committee Hearing: “Oversight of the Small Business Administration and Department of Treasury Pandemic Programs” (2118 Rayburn).
POLITICS:
Elections: Alabama and Texas will hold runoff elections while Maine will hold primary elections today. In Alabama, Republican voters will choose who will go up against Senator Doug Jones in November, in what is widely viewed as the Republican’s best pick-up opportunity in the Senate. After President Trump’s full-throated endorsement, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville appears to have the advantage over former Senator Jeff Sessions, whose departure from the seat in 2017 to become Attorney General led to Jones’ upset win in a special election.
In Texas, runoffs were postponed from May, and one of the most-watched races will decide the Democratic challenger to Senator John Cornyn. The contenders are Air Force veteran M.J. Hegar and State Senator Roy West. One of the most heated Republican runoffs is in the district represented by retiring Rep. Mac Thornberry. The race is between Ronny Jackson, the former White House doctor who has Trump’s endorsement, and Josh Winegarner, an agriculture expert and former Hill staffer, who has Thornberry’s backing.
In Maine, Democratic House Speaker Sara Gideon is expected to win her primary and then face Senator Susan Collins in what is shaping up to be the most expensive Senate race ever in the state.
Polling: Three CBS/YouGov polls released this weekend show the Presidential race tightening up in the Sun Belt. In Arizona, former Vice President Joe Biden and Trump are tied; in Florida, Biden leads Trump by six points; and in Texas, Trump has just a one-point lead. A Dallas Morning News poll has Biden up by five points in the state.
Convention Planning: Trump’s team is considering moving the Republican Convention festivities in Jacksonville to an outdoor location as Covid cases in Florida spike. While some aides have advocated to scale back the event and move to a virtual convention, the final decision is being left to Trump. It is expected that any changes will be announced soon, as the convention is only 43 days away. Over half a dozen Republican Senators have already said they will not attend the convention and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has expressed reservations according to the Associated Press.
EVENT INVITE: Housing's Current & Future State with Ed Pinto of AEI
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Join us tomorrow, July 15th for a frank and far-ranging discussion of the following key topics impacting the current and future state of the U.S. Housing market.
Join Hedgeye's Financials Analyst Josh Steiner and JT Taylor on July 15th at 12:30 PM ET as we host Edward J. Pinto, one of the nation’s top scholars on housing markets/finance, a former Fannie Mae executive, and the current Director of the Housing Center of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) to discuss a variety of topics currently impacting the US Housing market. Event & Call Details
Wednesday, July 15th at 12:30 PM ET Participating Dialing Instructions Toll-Free: Toll: UK: 0 Confirmation Number: 13706420
About Edward Pinto: Edward J. Pinto is a resident fellow and the co-director of the Center on Housing Markets and Finance at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He is currently researching how to increase the supply of economical apartments for hourly wage earners, as well as examining the current house price boom that began in 2012. This continues his previous work on the role of federal housing policy in the 2008 mortgage and financial crisis. Along with AEI Resident Scholar Stephen Oliner, Mr. Pinto created the Wealth Building Home Mortgage, a new approach to home finance designed to provide a more reliable and effective way of building wealth than is available under existing policies. This mortgage allows homebuyers to maintain a buying power similar to a 30-year loan. It is aimed at a broad range of homebuyers, including low-income, minority, and first-time buyers. Before joining AEI, Mr. Pinto was an executive vice president and chief credit officer for Fannie Mae until the late 1980s. Today, he is frequently interviewed on radio and television and often testifies before Congress. His writings have been published in trade publications and the popular press, including in the American Banker, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and The Wall Street Journal. In addition, as the co-director of the Center on Housing Markets and Finance, he oversees the monthly publication of the AEI Housing Market Indicators, which has replaced AEI’s monthly Housing Risk Watch and AEI’s FHA Watch. Mr. Pinto has a J.D. from Indiana University Maurer School of Law and a B.A. from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. |
