In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Trump's odds of victory. For the last few weeks, according to futures markets, Trump's odds of beating Biden have been in steep decline. Trump still faces steep odds. But last week he seemed to be making a comeback. Biden's advantage has eased from 23% down to 18%. While the media fiercely criticized his 4th of July speech, his patriotic take on America's past presidents and defense of statues at Mount Rushmore most likely left a good impression on most who listened.
Economic indicators start to show improvement. ISM released its US June PMIs, showing growth in all sectors. Manufacturing came in at 52.6, beating expectations of 49.6. Non-manufacturing came in at 57.1, crushing expectations of 50.1. Unemployment for June declined to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. For China in June, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.2 and the services PMI was 58.4.
US and UK respond to Hong Kong security law. Last week China passed the controversial Hong Kong Security Act. The US Congress responded by passing legislation that would penalize foreign banks that do business with Chinese officials who undermine Hong Kong's autonomy. The bill was passed with unanimous consent by the House and Senate, and will most likely be signed by Trump. The UK has responded to China by announcing a pathway to UK citizenship for the 3 million Hong Kong residents.
Edouard Philippe resigns as Prime Minister. France's Prime Minister resigned on Friday as Macron attempts to shake up his cabinet. With growing unpopularity, Macron is trying to restart his government before the 2022 election.
Ethiopia threatens Egypt's water supply. Ethiopia is planning to complete it colossal hydropower dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt, downriver from the dam, relies almost exclusively on the Nile for freshwater. If Ethiopia starts filling the dam is built without an agreement between the countries, Egypt has threatened to bomb it.
COVID-19 sets back Americans' plans to retire. According to a new report, Millennials are more than twice as likely as Gen Xers or Boomers to have withdrawn (or plan to withdraw) money from their retirement savings due to the pandemic. But no generation reports feeling very financially secure: The median Millennial has only $23K in retirement savings. Even the median Xer has only $64K in retirement savings.
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