OVERVIEW
The foot race between a COVID-19 #SecondWave and a vaccine is on and the data points will heat up over the coming weeks. Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine results announced this morning look really promising, but in the meantime, COVID19 cases are accelerating nationally. As we've been discussing recently, we think at- risk populations will lower their risk by keeping home as much as possible, likely disproportionately impacting utilization and the US Medical Economy negatively.
During the peak of the pandemic, demand for Health Care Labor in the ADP National Employment report fell ~10% off its peak in April, but alongside the economy re-opening, has been bouncing off the lows. Compared to pre-COVID levels, ADP Health Care Industry employment has bounced from down -8.2% YoY in April 2020 to only down -5.4% YoY in June 2020. Getting back to pre-COVID levels seems like a stretch to us.
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