We have revised our scoring method for states to include new data on inpatient hospital occupancy from the CDC and to place greater emphasis on increased testing relative to the positive rate. The new time series of inpatient occupancy offers important context on capacity that absolute numbers from websites like the COVID Tracking Project fail to provide. The data on ER visits for Influenza-like Illness are proving to be the most valuable signal for outbreaks and unfortunately, more than a few states in the south and southwest are signaling trouble.
All hope is not lost. The cases are now skewing younger which bodes well for hospitalizations and fatalities and ultimately, disease management. The bad news for the at-risk populations is that the garbled public health message - across the political spectrum and geography - has not resonated with the infected but not diseased. In retrospect we are likely to find that the last person you should ask to protect the health of someone over 65 is someone under 40.
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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