Below is a brief excerpt transcribed from Wednesday's edition of The Macro Show hosted by Demography Analyst Neil Howe.
The continuing horrible economic numbers are coming in along with the almost certain resurgence in COVID-19 infections as the economy opens back up.
This was just released this morning. The OECD laid out its "single" and "double" hit scenario for the future. This might have spooked European markets this morning with this information out there.
It’s the magnitude of the decline as well as this potential scenario that displays a fall resurgence or “second-wave” if you will.
You can see where we can potentially go from here. Keep in mind that this is Global GDP. You can see we're going to be in 2022 before even the entire world reaches baseline again, much less Europe or even the United States.
Now check out this chart.
This looks at the total projected GDP change looking at YoY. You can see the dark bars represent a double hit as opposed to a single hit (highlighted in the lighter red).
Look at some of these numbers!
The Euro area has the single hit and double hit projected at -9.1% and -11.5% decline in GDP respectively. At the far end you have Spain, France, and Italy getting hit really hard with big changes in GDP.
The OECD as a whole is -7.5 and -9.3. The United states isn’t much better with -7.3 and -8.5. The World is at -6.0 and -7.6.
Absolutely astonishing figures for the global economy.