Unfortunately for Oil prices, the Fed is not buying. So the Fed isn’t buying any commodity.
Commodities last week as an asset class were flat. You had a broad base bear market bounce in a lot of different things, but one of those things is not oil. This morning it was down over 6%.
For anybody who is in that business, goodnight and good luck. The problem there is the underlying cash flows that effect the high yield market. Energy-related securities and/or the whole edifice of inflation-type assets are going to be under pressure.
It may not happen in the one day or two days that you have certain asset management firms buying certain credit ETFs, but it’ll get there.
Don’t forget that we are very early in the U.S. Recession. Now that we have our updated Nowcast with incoming data, you can see the worst consumer confidence number in rate of change terms since October 2008.
The Michigan Consumer Confidence survey came out on Friday and that number was a certified train wreck in as much as jobless claims were. Worst since 2008 is not a good reference point.
Oil continues to be one of the worst places to be in Quad 4, as are energy stocks.