The White House in conjunction with Senate Republicans released the outline of Phase 3 COVID-19 stimulus through the Treasury Department moments ago. The outline can be found here. While we were half-joking on a call with colleagues this morning that "warp speed" are two words we in Washington don't equate with the United States Senate (taken from Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell's quote yesterday) - it looks as if the Senate is off to a speedy start putting forward a stimulus package.
First things first, the Phase 2 COVID-19 package totaling ~$100B passed by the House over the weekend will be taken up by the Senate in a few hours and will promptly be signed by President Trump.
Back to Phase 3. While the House took the lead on Phase 2, the Senate will take the lead on Phase 3. McConnell and three designated Senate 'task forces' have been working around the clock with the White House to assemble a relief package centered around direct payments to individuals in two tranches as opposed to payroll tax cuts/holidays which has faced resistance by both Republicans and Democrats.
The next step will be to negotiate a deal with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer and the Democrats have a number of priorities they want to be included in any final measure so the Republican outline released earlier is a starting point and will likely contain revisions reflecting Democrat priorities. Whatever compromise McConnell and Schumer forge will need 60 votes - and while we can't walk the halls of Congress these days - it just feels that comity is in the air. Our current timeline for passage of a measure in the Senate is late week or even into the weekend - again, a lot depends on how negotiations with Schumer go in the coming 24 hours.
Now, onto the other side of the dome...
The House returns from recess next Monday. While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may not physically be in the room with McConnell and Schumer this week - her presence will surely be looming in the negotiations as she'll have a Herculean effort ahead of her next week. The earliest the House could take up the measure is mid-week next week so if things go smoothly and at "warp speed" in the coming days, Phase 3 could land on Trump's desk by the end of next week.
Finally, it's incumbent upon both Republicans and Democrats to do this in an orderly and bipartisan manner - so we're not anticipating the acrimony and finger-pointing that has defined Washington in past years. With that, reflecting back on the first ill-fated TARP vote in late September 2008, we don't see either McConnell or Pelosi bringing forward any bill before the Senate or House that stands a chance of failing. Full stop.
Don't hesitate to reach out with questions and stay well.
