February’s PMI plunge in China is, unfortunately and increasingly, looking like the prologue for domestic macro activity as the Empire Manufacturing Series – the 1st Regional Survey for March – plummeted a record -34.4 pts to a reading of -21.5.
This was the worst reading in over a decade and, as you can see below, was more than 2X worse than the lowest estimate on the board.
The cratering was ubiquitous across the internals with New Orders falling -31.4 pts, # of Employees falling to -1.5 and Avg Employee workweek dropping -9.6pts to -10.6.
Recall, a deterioration in the here-to resilient domestic labor market remains the primary trap door fundamental risk and this morning's Empire Mrg data follows a 6th week of decline in Consumer Comfort (Bloomberg) and 4-month low in the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading (the only other high-frequency March readings MTD).
Suffice to say, with outbreak angst and contagion and containment measures still in crescendo, this is an early look at the rouge that is likely to blanket the domestic data-scape over the coming months.
