Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake.
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The Chart of the Day below plots the Y/Y Change in Continuing Claims against the Y/Y Change in Job Openings. The intuition is that, as growth slows and firms become increasingly reluctant to hire (increasingly expensive labor) or invest, at the margin, it becomes slowly but increasingly difficult to find a new job, particularly as competition for qualified labor intensifies in a tight market. Historically, this progression has characterized and perpetuated late-cycle labor dynamics. |
