Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.
-Charles Dickens, Great Expectations
How many times have you heard that “expectations are the root of all heartache?” Well, here it is one more time.
Looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls number to be reported on Friday, the expectation is high for a strong print. A Bloomberg Survey is looking for a BIG uptick to 515,000 jobs from 290,000 last month. We have noted the spread between what the economists were saying and reality since 2008 and 2009, when nobody saw the recession coming. What are the chances they get it right this time?
Yes, May is the peak for census hiring and there have been a number of press reports that the Obama Administration is double counting the numbers, but this looks a little out of line.