overview | Forecast Algorithm for Same unit volume +1.6%
We extended our forecast for MD's same unit volume forecast through 4Q19 and 1Q20. As we covered in our MD presentation (link to slides and replay below), the US Medical Economy has been accelerating through 2019, particularly for the radiology arena. Applying these trends to our adjusted same unit volume estimate results in a forecast of 1.6% for same unit volume, that when combined with same unit pricing of 1.0% and additional same unit physician growth, pushes same unit revenue to be at the high end or above management's 4Q19 guidance of 1% to 3% for same unit revenue growth.
Radiology Acquisition to start 2020
MD began 2020 with the acquisition of a medium- sized Radiology practice. Based on management's commentary, EBITDA margins in their Radiology practice is in the high teens, compared to high single digits for Anesthesiology. As we showed in our recent presentation, Anesthesiology continues to decline in total headcount terms, which when combined with faster same unit Radiology growth and additional revenue from acquisitions, provides a tailwind to EBITDA margins though mix shift. A sustained re- acceleration in Radiology acquisitions would be substantially positive to this mix impact.
Links to Replay
MD | Best Idea Long | Worse Than it Looked, but Better Than it Seems
CLICK HERE for video & audio replays.
CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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