Retail sales numbers came in this morning.
As you can see in the charts below, we are well off-peak. We continue to slow. We do expect a plodding deceleration as we move forward. The US consumer continues to backstop both the domestic and the global cycle.
Relative stability in terms of domestic consumption has been our call. We expect a continuation of that trend at least in the near term.
But the risk remains asymmetrically to the downside.