CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION:
Monday, September 16, 2019
3:00 PM Eastern Time
Speakers: Former EIA Administrator Guy Caruso & Former OPEC President/Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil
Participating Dialing Instructions
Toll-Free:
Toll:
UK: 0
Confirmation Number: 13694652
Oil prices are spiking today after the world’s largest oil processing facility at Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia was attacked resulting in major damage on Saturday. Saudi energy ministry officials said in a statement that half of the kingdom’s oil production was halted because of fire and damage at Abqaiq but hopes to restart some operations and production on Monday.
However it's unclear the extent of the damage, and conflicting reports from Saudi Arabia make it a fluid situation. The attack, claimed by Houthi rebels but likely with Iran’s involvement, is the biggest attack on oil infrastructure since the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Early reports suggested the missile launch took place from Iraq but US officials this morning are suggesting the attack may have been launched from inside Iran. In our view, we market must now contend with a new geopolitical risk not yet envisioned: a Saudi military response to attacks on its key oil infrastructure.
The attacks have reawakened geopolitical risk for oil markets. In our view, there was almost no geopolitical risk priced into oil markets until now that had been focused solely on the macro and trade narratives. Previous attacks on tankers and oil infrastructure were not viewed as serious by the market but it is hard to ignore Saturday’s attack and damage at such a key facility at Abqaiq.
Our Hedgeye conference call this afternoon will provide some analysis on the Abqaiq oil processing facility as well as the latest damage assessments from two speakers:
- Guy Caruso, former Administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and now a senior advisor for energy and national security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Chakib Khelil, former OPEC President & former Algerian Energy Minister
