Takeaway: Biggest attack on oil infrastructure since the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Iran-Saudi confrontation looming.

Mark Your Calendar

Monday, September 16, 2019

3:00 PM Eastern Time

Conference Call Number: Will be sent on Monday morning

Speakers: Former EIA Administrator Guy Caruso & Former OPEC President/Algergian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil

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Monday Conference Call: SAUDI OIL ATTACK – ABQAIQ PRIMER & DAMAGE ASSESSMENT - Whack a mole

The world’s largest oil processing facility at Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia was attacked resulting in major damage on Saturday. Saudi energy ministry officials said in a statement that half of the kingdom’s oil production was halted because of fire and damage at Abqaiq but hopes to restart some operations and production on Monday.

However it's unclear the extent of the damage, and conflicting reports from Saudi Arabia make it a fluid situation. The attack, claimed by Houthi rebels but likely with Iran’s involvement, is the biggest attack on oil infrastructure since the Iraq invasion of Kuwait.

We have a conference call on Monday afternoon to provide some analysis on the Abqaiq oil processing facility as well as the latest damage assessments from two speakers:

• Guy Caruso, former Administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and now a senior advisor for energy and national security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

• Chakib Khelil, former OPEC President & former Algerian Energy Minister

Oil prices are set to spike on the news of the attacks when markets open on Sunday night ET. In our view, there is almost no geopolitical risk priced into oil markets that are focused solely on the macro and trade narratives.

Previous attacks on tankers and oil infrastructure were not viewed as serious by the market but it is hard to ignore Saturday’s attack and damage at such a key facility at Abqaiq.