• [WEBCAST] Raoul Pal & Neil Howe: A Sobering U.S. Economic Reality Check

    Prepare your portfolio for “big picture” paradigm shifts with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and Demography analyst Neil Howe.

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro Analyst Christian DrakeClick here to learn more.

  • If you are worried about slowing growth you don’t just start firing people.  You begin to curtail new hiring and toggle back the number of hours your current employees are working.  Indeed, Labor Hoarding defines early recession periods as labor’s share of national income spikes as employers respond to macro conditions on a lag. 
  • This is what occurring currently.  Payroll growth is slowing as are average weekly hours, resulting in a material slowdown in aggregate hours growth. In the Chart of the Day below we plot the trend in aggregate hours growth vs real output growth.  

CHART OF THE DAY: Slowing U.S. Growth - CoD Hours vs GDP