Takeaway: Administration was torn about granting Chevron a general license to continue Venezuela operation so instead IT gave shorter 3-month waiver.

Hedgeye Energy Policy Senior Analyst Joe McMonigle wrote a client note this week that the Chevron general license to continue operations in Venezuela was in trouble.  The initial license expires on July 27.  Today, the Trump Administration balked at a longer license and instead granted a shorter three month extension for Chevron.  Below is some brief analysis from Joe about today's decision.

"We view a 3-month license as a temporary reprieve for Chevron. The administration was especially torn on what to do here although we had believed the license would not be renewed. Our advice to Chevron would be to start preparing to leave after October. We are highly doubtful there will be another extension granted.  Venezuela opposition government President Juan Guiado and his team are pushing hard for the license termination and secondary sanctions. As we get closer to Trump’s re-election year, I see the administration wanting to get tougher."