Good morning, you can enjoy today's The Macro Show with Macro & Housing analyst Christian Drake and Restaurants & Cannabis analyst Shayne Laidlaw HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) QUAD 4 - Harmonized, global Quad 4 was back on full display yesterday with global yields making lower lows, Oil, Energy, Financials and reflation exposures down on a relative and absolute basis with Large Cap, Low Beta, Defensive yield outperforming and Utes (+1.4%), REIT’s (+1.85%) and Gold (+60 bps) up big … and bid again this morning. Trade Truce’s and Tourist headlines remain the Tree, #TheCycle remains the forest.
2) THE CYCLE - Canada, India and Singapore all join the global, contractionary PMI party in June as global cyclical activity continues to crater. More broadly, with U.S. ISM New Orders at a 42-month low, Eurozone manufacturing in contraction, the Global PMI moving further into contraction in June and global trade/export volumes primed for negative growth, global bond yields continue to snub equity exuberance. German 10YR yields down to a fresh ATL at -0.39% while peripheral yields continue to make lower and/or all-time lows.
3) REFLATION - Is that it? Inclusive of Trade Truce’s and Dovish Policy Pivots, global reflation aspirations have remained thus far elusive. With global cyclical activity slow and slowing and Industrial Metals, Copper, Breakevens (inflation expectations) and nominal bond yields all lower again today, the steady drip of deceleration remains ongoing. U.S. 10YR Yields breaching 2% to the downside at 1.95% this morning ahead of the holiday and Friday’s Employment report.
PODCAST | Hedgeye In The Arena
"Trading Like A Caveman" with Anne-Marie Baiynd CEO of TheTradingBook.com
We are excited to release our latest In The Arena podcast featuring trader and author Anne-Marie Baiynd who is the CEO of TheTradingBook.com.
During this candid, in-depth conversation with host Daryl Jones, she discusses losing millions of dollars trading as a novice, learning from her mistakes, creating a process, and respecting macro forces in the market.
CLICK HERE to listen.
A PEEK INTO ANN-MARIE'S DAILY PROCESS:
“I'm like, give me the data. I just want the data. And then I'm going to start thinking about, okay, here's the data now how are people responding to the data and that pulls into that background that I have in behavioral statistics. 10 people can hear the same thing and individually if they are they are by themselves they're going to react quite differently. Now when they're all together, they're going to influence each other and it's going to be groupthink. But if they're separate, they're going to think totally different things. So my thought is not, Ohh this is my data so this should happen. My thought is always, this is my data, how are people going to respond to this? And how close is that to my pivotal areas of support resistance and can I leverage that to make money today?”