Welcome back! You can enjoy today's The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) EURO – Bearish TREND @Hedgeye since April of 2018 when #EuropeSlowing became obvious relative to U.S. #GrowthAccelerating. Now the ECB finally agrees and is in dovish-turn-tail mode… but that doesn’t mean the European economy will magically re-accelerate. Italian stocks leading losers this morning -0.8% with the Italian 10YR Yield +6bps vs. Germany’s 10yr down to 0.09%.
2) OIL – Big time reflation (Quad 3) move continues with Oil Volatility (OVX) finally breaking down through 30. It is important to see if that and Bullish @Hedgeye TREND support of $55.32 WTI holds post Oil’s +5.8% week where OVX dropped another -10%.
3) VIX – Can a sub 15 front-month VIX hold? If it does, that will definitely tip our quantitative signal from Bearish to Bullish @Hedgeye TREND for SPY. Anything can happen when the machines chase 1-month price momentum like this, but we're going to wait and watch on this one as there is nothing in our Fundamental Research process that doesn’t say Quad 4 then Quad 3.
The Macro Show Schedule
Below is the lineup for this week, if you are unable to tune-in live and have a question for the team you can submit it HERE.
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In Case You Missed It
McCullough: How to Use Inflation to Guide Your Investing Strategy
McCullough laments that inflation is one of the most underappreciated factors in forecasting the macro environment. Predicting the likely path of inflation is the best guide when investing in Treasury bonds. CLICK HERE for more.
