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US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE

Yesterday was a very strong day for the S&P 500.  The breadth of the market was very positive as every sector was up, as the S&P 500 rose 1.02% of the day.  On the bearish side volume easy down 22% day-over-day from a very snowy Friday in February. 

 

On the MARO front there were some positive catalysts (1) reports of a new rescue package for Greece benefited the RISK trade, (2) strategic M&A activity continued (3) a strong earnings season and (4) better-than-expected January spending data.  All of this was good for the dollar index, which was up 0.37% on the day.  Today’s set up of the Hedgeye Risk Management models have levels for the Dollar Index (DXY) at:  buy Trade (80.26) and sell Trade (80.97).

 

On the negative side a below-consensus 56.5 reading on the February ISM, along with declines in the forward-looking new orders and production components, seemed to be set aside by an improvement in the employment component to 56.1 from 53.3.

 

In return for support from other member nations, Greece is expected to announce on Wednesday that it has agreed to implement new austerity measures. The news helped underpin global equities and a number of pockets of the risk trade.  The unwinding of the RISK trade can be seen in the VIX, which is broken on all three durations – TRADE, TREND, and TAIL.  The VIX declining 1.23% yesterday and today’s setup of the Hedgeye Risk Management models have levels for the volatility Index (VIX) at:  buy Trade (18.79) and sell Trade (22.01). 

 

All year long strategic M&A has continued to offer a tailwind for stocks.  Yesterday, MIL agreed to be acquired by MRK for roughly $6B in cash, while AIG +4.1% rallied after announcing the sale of its Asian life insurance business to PRU $35.5B. In addition, MXB (4.6%) said that it had agreed to acquire RISK in a deal valued at $1.5B.

 

Yesterday, the best performing sector was Consumer Discretionary.  Continuing it three week outperformance on the back of better-than-expected Q4 earnings and 2010 outlook, retail was the biggest contributor to the outperformance; the S&P Retail Index was up  1.6% on the day.  The positive trend in consumer spending got off to a strong start in 2010, rising 0.5% in January, with real spending up 0.3% and running at a 3.3% annualized rate thus far in 2010.

 

We are currently bullish on Technology and long the XLK.  Yesterday, the Semis lead tech higher with the SOX +3.1%. The bulk of the move was attributed to SNDK which was up 11.9%, which boosted its Q1 guidance at last Friday's analyst day, while also noting that it expects F10 revenue to come in at the upper end of its forecasted range.  An additional tailwind for the semis came from January global semiconductor sales data from the SIA, along with upwardly revised fiscal Q2 guidance from SWKS.

 

We are also long the Financials (XLF), but they lagged the broader index yesterday.  After outperforming in a down week last week, the banking group was weaker on the day with the BKX (0.4%).   There was not a lot of news flow yesterday to point to the decline.  

 

As we wake up today, Equity futures are trading above fair value and at session highs on anticipation the EU will agree to an aid package for Greece.   It’s a quiet day for economic data points today; we will get API Crude Inventories, ABC Consumer Confidence, and February domestic Vehicle Sales will be reported throughout the day.  As we look at today’s set up, the range for the S&P 500 is 19 points or 1% (1,103) downside and 1.0% (1,122) upside. 

 

Copper fell from the highest in more than five weeks in London as mines reopened in Chile after a magnitude-8.8 earthquake halted operations and the dollar rallied.  The Hedgeye Risk Management Quant models have the following levels for COPPER – Buy Trade (3.18) and Sell Trade (3.39).

 

In early trading gold is unchanged.  The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for GOLD – Buy Trade (1,096) and Sell Trade (1,124).

 

In early trading OIL is trading above $79.00.  The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for OIL – Buy Trade (77.12) and Sell Trade (80.91).

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - sp1

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - usd2

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - vix3

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - oil4

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - gold5

 

US STRATEGY - QUIET and to the UPSIDE - copper6

 


Selling The Freakout!

“Art is making something out of nothing and selling it.”

-Frank Zappa

 

Frank Zappa was an iconoclastic musician who wrote all of the lyrics to his own songs. He was a critic of mainstream groupthink. He was a father of four. He was an American success story who understood how to make the passionate sale.

 

In 1966, Zappa and his band, The Mothers of Invention, released their debut album, “Freak Out!” You know I love that album’s name as much as I loved Zappa’s facial hair. Zappa had a great firefighter’s ‘stache. He could have easily doubled as Al Nicholls in Slapshot (Captain of the Charlestown Chiefs).

 

The art of risk management is “making something out of nothing and selling it” when the Manic Media is having their little Freakouts. We’ve talked about the efficacy of Selling Fear and shopping You Tube videos of empty Chinese cities to your local trading desks – when it’s consensus, these aren’t very effective short selling strategies.

 

With Greece up +3% and the SP500 up +1%, global stock markets put on quite a show yesterday. Short sellers from Athens to Albany got run-over old-time hockey style. Sorry wanna-be short sellers, the pros are playing this game now and this is what happens when you are Selling The Freakout!

 

Back in my day, I wasn’t afraid to dawn the cut-off jean shorts on Yale’s campus, so I can assure you that changing my mind from the long to the short side of a market isn’t a conceptual problem. Having a pair of scissors is sometimes all it takes when you want to make art out your Canadian denim portfolio.

 

Covering your shorts can be both a figurative and mathematical exercise. It all depends on where your goods are positioned before the tide rolls out. Every short position is a liability. Never forget that, or the water level will forget you. Gains on the short side are meant to be taken.

 

As opposed to some of the unaccountable 2009 short selling artists formerly known as Depressionistas, I have an investment portal where I can change my tunes real-time. It’s not iTunes, but it seems to work. Sometimes I’m buying. Sometimes I’m selling. It’s all virtual – and I’m cool with that too.

 

Currently I have 11 short positions in the Virtual Portfolio. On strength yesterday, I shorted the Russell 2000 (IWM) smaller cap index into the market’s close. We professional short sellers call this the ole hedge in the Hedgeye.

 

Zappa’s “Freak Out!” is frequently cited as one of America’s first “concept albums” (unified by a theme), and I think that’s a good way to think about how a global macro risk manager makes intraday moves. I start every investment quarter (every 3 months) with 3 Macro Themes. This quarter, those themes have been:

  1. Buck Breakout (long the US Dollar (UUP); short gold, GLD )
  2. Rate Run-up (bearish on long term US Treasuries – short IEF)
  3. Chinese Ox In A Box (we have covered our short position in Chinese equities, CAF)

Like a musician, I wake up repeating these themes over and over again, until I think I have it right. Sometimes, I wake up realizing that I either have it wrong, or that I am about to get it wrong. So I stop the music, and start over. Why be wed to your own lyrics when you can just change them?

 

Of our 3 Macro Themes for Q1 of 2010, the one that’s most likely to turn on me is the 3rd one – Chinese Ox In A Box. Rather than overstay my bearish welcome,  I have already started to transition my team to focusing on where we could go wrong in staying negative on China. Consensus is clearly starting to Sell The Freakout!

 

Here are some Chinese lyrics from Mr. Macro Market that we are listening to:

  1. China rallied +1.2% yesterday on a horrible (but proactively predictable) Producer Manufacturing (PMI) print of 52 (vs. 55.8 last month)
  2. Chinese stocks then traded down -0.48% last night, but made another higher-low
  3. The Shanghai Composite closed at 3073 and, critically, that’s held my immediate term TRADE line of support at 3041

On their own, these one liners are less-bearish. Collectively, they may start singing a song that’s outright bullish. Stay tuned. The art of risk management is that the music is always changing. After all, Selling The Freakout isn’t a unique idea. Zappa started doing that in 1966.

 

My immediate term TRADE lines of support and resistance for the SP500 are now 1103 (which is also the intermediate term TREND line of support) and 1122, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

LONG ETFS

 

FXC – CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar — Canada's currency was on sale on 2/25/10 and we are bullish on the Loonie's long term TAIL, at a price. Look for rate hikes in Canada in the coming 6-9 months.

 

XLF – SPDR Financials — With sentiment negative and a Piggy Banker Spread hitting a record wide spread on 2/23/10, we bought red.

 

XLK – SPDR Technology — Technology is underperforming the SP500 YTD; a down day on 2/22/10 prompted us to buy more. We expect to see some positive mean reversion for Technology as M&A picks up.

 

UUP – PowerShares US Dollar Index Fund — We bought the USD Fund on 1/4/10 as an explicit way to represent our Q1 2010 Macro Theme that we have labeled Buck Breakout (we were bearish on the USD in ’09).

CYB - WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan — The Yuan is a managed floating currency that trades inside a 0.5% band around the official PBOC mark versus a FX basket. Not quite pegged, not truly floating; the speculative interest in the Yuan/USD forward market has increased dramatically in recent years. We trade the ETN CYB to take exposure to this managed currency in a managed economy hoping to manage our risk as the stimulus led recovery in China dominates global trade.

TIP - iShares TIPS — The iShares etf, TIP, which is 90% invested in the inflation protected sector of the US Treasury Market currently offers a compelling yield. We believe that future inflation expectations are mispriced and that TIPS are a efficient way to own yield on an inflation protected basis.
 

SHORT ETFS

 

IWM – iShares Russell 2000With the Russell 2000 finally overbought from an immediate term TRADE perspective on 3/1/10, we got the entry price that the risk manager makes a sale on strength.

 

GLD – SPDR Gold We re-shorted Gold on this dead cat bounce on 2/11/10. We remain bullish on a Buck Breakout and bearish on Gold for Q1 of 2010, as a result.

 

XLP – SPDR Consumer StaplesGiven how many investors own Consumer Staples stocks because it was a "way to play the weak US Dollar" last year, we have ourselves another way to profit from a Buck Breakout with this short position.

   

IEF – iShares 7-10 Year TreasuryOne of our Macro Themes for Q1 of 2010 is "Rate Run-up". Our bearish view on US Treasuries is implied.


THE M3: GAMING REVENUES GROW ~69-70% IN FEBRUARY

The Macau Metro Monitor, March 2, 2010

 

GAMING REVENUE RISE macaubusiness.com, MacauNews

According to Lusa and the Macau Post Daily, the Macau gaming market generated revenues of ~13.4-13.5 billion MOP for the month of February, an increase of ~69-70% YoY and a decline of ~3.6% sequentially. February 2010 set a new record for gaming revenues in one day--more than MOP1 billion. As for market share, SJM continues to lead with 32%; LVS had 20%; WYNN had 15%; MPEL had 14%; Galaxy had 10%; and MGM Grand Paradise had 9% of the market share.


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Foot Locker (FL): Black Book & Conf. Call Wednesday

Conference Call Wednesday March 3rd, 12 p.m. EST

We've been vocal about warming up to both Nike and Foot Locker as key ideas for 2010. We covered NKE on Friday's call, and now it's Foot Locker's turn.
 
Our Foot Locker Conference Call marks the publication of our Foot Locker Black Book. The call is open to institutional subscribers of Hedgeye's Retail vertical -- and for qualified prospective institutional clients.

The call will cover in detail why we think Foot Locker deserves a closer look, focusing on:

  • Historical underperformance in context of new leadership, with a new strategy
  • Store rationalization, brand realignment, product mix, private/exclusive branding, and reinvestment in marketing
  • Assets like e-commerce and international that have been overshadowed by lackluster U.S performance

 

Dial-in number:    (code: 668844#)

 

Have questions? Please send them to  either during, or at any point leading up to Wednesday's call. We will address every question either on the call, or in a personal response after its conclusion.

 

 

Contact to request access to the conference call, or to request access/pricing on the NKE Black Book and/or the FL Black Book. A replay of Friday's NKE call is also available to institutional subscribers of Hedgeye's Retail vertical -- and for qualified prospective institutional clients upon request.

 

 

Foot Locker (FL): Black Book & Conf. Call Wednesday - FL Cover


SBUX - RAISING PRICES WITHOUT RAISING PRICES

When Starbucks first opened they had traditional sizing of small, medium and large choices of beverage.  After raising prices for several years, the company looked to changing out the cups size as a way of raising prices and getting consumer to buy more, even though they may not want it. 

 

It appears that Starbucks is testing a new size in the Phoenix market: Trenta.

 

The old Starbucks…       

Small = 8 fl oz
Medium = 12 fl oz
Large = 16 fl oz

 

Today’s Starbucks…

Short = 8 fl oz (you have to ask for this and in many cases the store does not have it)
Tall = 12 fl oz
Grande = 16 fl oz
Venti = 20 fl oz

The word venti stands for 20 in Italian. 

 

Tomorrow’s Starbucks…

Tall = 12 fl oz
Grande = 16 fl oz
Venti = 20 fl oz 

Trenta = 30 fl oz

 

According to Wikipedia - Trenta is a town and comune of 2,616 inhabitants in the province of Cosenza in the Calabria region of southern Italy.  Trenta is situated high in the Crati Valley. The town's ancient name, Triginta, derives from the Latin number triginta or thirty.

 

SBUX - RAISING PRICES WITHOUT RAISING PRICES - sbux


March First (an action, not a date)

In the spirit of this morning’s Early Look note titled “The Joy of Winning”, here is a collection of thought leading quotes that we have posted over the course of our firm’s young history. There is responsibility in recommendation.


Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

 

 

"Restlessness and discontent are the first necessities of progress.”
-Thomas Edison

 

 

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
-Galileo Galilei

 

 

“I’d rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not.”
-Kurt Cobain

 

 

"Learn without thinking begets ignorance. Think without learning is dangerous.”
-Confucius

 

 

“I can fairly be called an amateur because I do what I do, in the original sense of the word - for love, because I love it.”
-David McCullough

 

 

“Problems cannot be solved by the level of awareness that created them”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“The charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different.”

-Aldous Huxley

 

 

“I ask you to judge me by the enemies I have made.”
-Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

 

“We are entering upon waters for which I have no charts and in which I therefore feel myself an utterly incompetent pilot.”
-James Warburg

 

 

“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.”
-Warren Buffett

 

 

“It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.”
-Jesse Livermore

 

 

“When you realize how perfect everything is you will tilt your head back and laugh at the sky.”
-Buddha

 

 

“My downfall raises me to infinite heights.”
-Napoleon Bonaparte

 

 

“Study the past if you would define the future.”
-Confucius

 

 

“Gravity is a contributing factor in nearly 73 percent of all accidents involving falling objects.”
-Dave Barry

 

 

“The bend in the road is not the end of the road unless you refuse to take the turn.”
-Anon

 

 

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.”
-Confucius

 

 

“Information is the currency of democracy.”
-Thomas Jefferson

 

 

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.”
-James Dean

 

 

“If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”
-Will Rogers

 

 

“Yes, we have to divide up our time like that, between our politics and our equations. But to me our equations are far more important, for politics are only a matter of present concern. A mathematical equation stands forever.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“A Dollar remains hidden behind every wasted moment.”

- Anonymous

 

 

“Well done is better than well said.”
-Benjamin Franklin

 

“Do not bite at the bait of pleasure, till you know there is no hook beneath it.”
-Thomas Jefferson

 

 

“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”

-Mayer Rothschild

 

 

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
-Galileo Galilei

 

 

“Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing.”
-Peyton Manning

 

 

“Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction.”

-Albert Einstein

 

 

“Whenever I felt happy about having discovered something, the first encounter, not only with the public, with other musicians, with specialists, etc, was that they rejected it.”
-Karlheinz Stockhausen

 

 

“So was I once myself a swinger of birches; And so I dream of going back to be”
-Robert Frost “Swinger of Birches”

 

 

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”
-Sun Tzu

 

 

“Man has made some machines that can answer questions provided the facts are profusely stored in them, but we will never be able to make a machine that will ask questions. The ability to ask the right question is more than half the battle of finding the answer.”
-Thomas J Watson

 

 

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“The better part of valor is discretion”
– William Shakespeare

 

 

“It does not matter how slowly you go so long as you do not stop.”
-Confucius

 

 

The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine yourself without one.

-Oscar Wilde

 

 

“Circumstances rule men; men do not rule circumstances.”

-Herodotus

 

 

“If a man takes no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand.”

-Confucius

 

 

“Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.”

-Buddha

 

 

“I'm not concerned about all hell breaking loose, but that a PART of hell will break loose... it'll be much harder to detect.”

-George Carlin

 

 

“Truth is what stands the test of experience”

-Albert Einstein

 

 

“One of life’s most painful moments comes when we must admit that we didn’t do our homework, that we are not prepared.”

-Merlin Olson

 

 

“Only the wisest and stupidest of men never change.”
-Confucius

 

 

“Confine yourself to the present.”
-Marcus Aurelius

 

 

“A man’s feet should be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world.”
-George Santayana

 

 

“Sharp downward movements do that… they focus the mind, like a good hanging used to do in the Old West.”
-Judge Roy Bean

 

 

"In life, as in a football game, the principle is to hit the line hard.”
-Theodore Roosevelt

 

 

“People in Hollywood are not showmen, they’re maintenance men, pandering to what they think their audiences want.”
-Terry Gilliam

 

 

“Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing.”
-Abraham Lincoln

 

 

“Everything comes to him who hustles while he waits.”
-Thomas Edison

 

 

“I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.”
-Confucius

 

 

"Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced."
~ James Baldwin

 

 

“Offer them what they secretly want and they of course immediately become panic-stricken.”
-Jack Kerouac

 

 

“Charlie and I believe that when you find information that contradicts your existing beliefs, you’ve got a special obligation to look at it – and quickly”
-Warren Buffett

 

 

“It's easier to think outside the box if you don't draw one around yourself.”
-Jason Kravitz

 

 

"The pressure not to lose has been replaced by the pressure not to miss out."
-Seth Klarman (Founder of Baupost)

 

 

“Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.”
-John Maynard Keynes

 

 

"Show me a hero and I will write you a tragedy."
-F. Scott Fitzgerald

 

 

"It is easy to dodge our responsibilities, but we cannot dodge the consequences of dodging our responsibilities."-  Sir Josiah Stamp

 

 

 "All the busy little creatures chasing out their destinies... living in their pools they soon forget about the sea..."
- Neil Peart

 

 

"Perceived perception, misguided conception."
-Anonymous

 

 

"I just made mistakes... And obviously you can't make mistakes and expect to not only make the cut but also try and win a championship."
-Tiger Woods

 

 

"Monkeys are superior to men in this: when a monkey looks into a mirror, he sees a monkey."
-Malcolm de Chazal

 

 

"Don't let the fear of striking out hold you back."
-Babe Ruth

 

 

"What lies behind us, and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

 

"Victory is reserved for those who are willing to pay its price."
- Sun Tzu

 

 

"If you are out to describe the truth, leave elegance to the tailor"
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"Fail to prepare. Prepare to fail."
-Roy Keane

 

 

“No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success, or get rich in business, by being a conformist.”
-J. Paul Getty

 

 

"The human body can take damn near anything. It's the mind that needs training."

- Instructor Reno

 

 

 

"It's not the will to win, but the will to prepare to win that makes the difference."
-Bear Bryant

 

 

"With enough courage, you can do without a reputation."
-Rhett Butler (Gone With The Wind)

 

 

"Tis a common proof... That lowliness is young ambitions ladder."
-William Shakespeare

 

 

"It's the broncs and the blood, it's the steers and the mud, and they call the thing rodeo." -Garth Brooks

 

 

"Thou art not listening to me. Be calm. As for me, am I not calm? I am altogether calm."
- Oscar Wilde, "Salome"

 

 

 

"To believe with certainty we must begin with doubting."
                Stanislaw Leszczynski

 

 

"Feel like a broke down engine, ain’t got no driving wheel"
 -Blind Willie McTell

 

 

"Dream as if you'll live forever.  Live as if you you'll die today."

- James Dean

 

 

"If you're not confused, you're not paying attention."
~ Tom Peters

 

 

"They say that time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself"
-Andy Warhol

 

 

"Tension is who you think you should be.  Relaxation is who you are." 
~Chinese Proverb

 

 

"Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong."
-Peter T. Mcintyre

 

 

"I did envisage being this successful as a player, but not all the hysteria around it off the golf course."
-Tiger Woods

 

 

"Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to."
-Jesse Livermore, Reminiscence of a Stock Operator

 

 

"I followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make memorandum of it without fail."
-Charles Darwin

 

 

"One dog barks because it sees something; a hundred dogs bark because they heard the first dog bark."
-Chinese Proverb

 

 

"He who will not economize will have to agonize."
-Confucius

 

 

 

"Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are."
  -Bertolt Brecht

 

 

"I made my money by selling too soon."
-Bernard Baruch

 

 

"The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home."
-Confucius

 

 

"I'm trained in weapons, demolition, and unarmed combat. I'm a sniper, and I'm the platoon medic. But most of all, I'm an American."
-Marcus Lutrell, US Navy SEAL

 

 

"Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do."
-Pele

 

 

"To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved."
-George MacDonald

 

 

"Here was neither peace, nor rest, nor a moment's safety. All was confusion and action, and every moment life and limb were in peril."
-Jack London, The Call of the Wild

 

 

"Do you know the terror of he who falls asleep? To the very toes he is terrified, because the ground gives way under him, and the dream begins."
-Friedrich Nietzsche

 

 

"Thinking well is wise; planning well, wiser; doing well wisest and best of all."- Persian Proverb

 

 

"Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil."
-J. Paul Getty

 

 

"It's never too late to give up our prejudices."
-Henry David Thoreau

 

 

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses."  -Friedrich Nietzsche

 

 

"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"Faced with what is right, to leave it undone shows a lack of courage."
-Confucius

 

 

"Chasing Performance is like driving while looking into a rear view mirror."
-Andrew Barber

 

 

"If you want to succeed in the world, you don't have to be much cleverer than other people. You just have to be one day earlier."
-Leo Szilard

 

 

"No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success by being a conformist."
-J. Paul Getty

 

 

"Expect more than others think possible."
-Howard Shultz, CEO Starbucks

 

 

"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed. "
-Michael Jordan

 

 

Whatever you fear most has no power - it is your fear that has the power.
Oprah Winfrey

 

 

"Fear grows in darkness; if you think there's a bogeyman around, turn on the light."
-Dorothy Thompson

 

 

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."
-Voltaire

 

 

"Learn to fail with pride - and do so fast and cleanly. Maximize trial and error - by mastering the error part."
-Nassim Taleb

 

 

"It gets late early out there."
-Yoggi Berra

 

 

"In addition to trying to determine how to make money one must also try to keep from losing money. It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done."
-Jesse Livermore

 

 

"Forget about style; worry about results"
-Bobby Orr

 

 

"Education is the movement from darkness to light."
-Allan Bloom

 

 

"Learning without thought is labor lost."
-Confucius

 

 

"I've got friends, of course, but my business has always been the same - a one-man affair.  That is why I have always played a lone hand."
-Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

 

 

"Genius is nothing but a greater aptitude for patience."
-Benjamin Franklin

 

 

"Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices - just recognize them."
-Edward Roscoe Murrow

 

 

"I followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation, or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail, and at once."
-Charles Darwin

 

 

"We are what we repeatedly do."
-Aristotle

 

 

"I think that only daring speculation can lead us further and not accumulation of facts."
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"The memories of men are too frail a thread to hang history from."  
~John Still, The Jungle Tide

 

 

"I am a member of a team, and I rely on the team, I defer to it and sacrifice for it, because the team, not the individual, is the ultimate champion. "
-Mia Hamm

 

 

"Let your performance do the thinking. "
-H. Jackson Brown

 

 

"Never mistake a clear view for a short distance"
~ Paul Saffo

 

 

"I'm aware if I'm playing at my best I'm tough to beat. And I enjoy that."
-Tiger Woods

 

 

"The object of this competition is not to be mean to the losers but to find a winner. The process makes you mean because you get frustrated."
-Simon Cowell

 

 

 

"One of the definitions of sanity is the ability to tell real from unreal. Soon we'll need a new definition."
-Alvin Toffler

 

 

"You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves."
-Abraham Lincoln

 

 

 

"Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure."
-Confucius

 

 

"I'm not known as a goal scorer, but I have found my role by doing other things. The nice thing about this team is that everyone contributes."
-Matt Nelson, Yale Hockey Captain 2009

 

 

"The evil of the world is made possible by nothing but the sanction you give it. "
Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged, 1957

 

 

"You don't need a weather man / to know which way the wind blows."
Bob Dylan

 

 

"I'm not going to waste my time arguing with a man who's lining up to be a hot lunch."
-Hooper to Quint in Jaws (1975)

 

 

 

"It is harder to crack a prejudice than an atom."
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"What's right isn't always popular. What's popular isn't always right."
-Howard Cosell

 

 

"The game taught me the game."
-Jesse Livermore

 

 

"May you live to be 100 and may the last voice you hear be mine."
-Frank Sinatra

 

 

"Gentlemen Prefer Bonds"
-Andrew Mellon

 

 

"Depression is rage spread thin."
-George Santayana

 

 

"Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday."
- Unknown

 

 

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist fact to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."
-Sherlock Holmes

 

 

"As long as I can see the puck, I don't think you can beat me."
-Alec Richards (Yale Hockey's Senior starting goaltender)

 

 

“Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time. ”
-Alvin Toffler

 

 

“A leader is a dealer in hope”
~ Napoleon Bonaparte

 

 

“Be not the slave of your own past.”
-Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

 

“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway”
-John Wayne

 

 

"How much can you know about yourself if you've never been in a fight?"
 -Brad Pitt, Fight Club

 

 

“Never give a sword to a man who can't dance.”
-Confucius

 

 

"Neither shall you allege the example of the many as an excuse for doing wrong."
-Exodus 23:2

 

 

“She take my money when I'm in need… Yea she's a triflin' friend indeed…Oh she's a gold digger way over town… That digs on me”
-Kanye West

 

 

“Never do anything against conscience even if the state demands it.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but how realistically they define what they don’t know.”
-Warren Buffett

 

 

“I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives. I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him.”
-Abraham Lincoln

 

 

“When you strip away a country’s or an individual’s right to fail, you take away their ability to succeed. Let the natural forces of accountability work for all.”
-Stuart Witt (Mohave Air & Space Port, 2009)

 

 

“What is defeat? Nothing but education; nothing but the first steps to something better.”
-Wendell Phillips

 

 

“What is a committee? A group of the unwilling, picked from the unfit, to do the unnecessary.”
-Richard Harkness

 

 

"The Ox is the sign of prosperity through fortitude and hard work. This powerful sign is a born leader, being quite dependable and possessing an innate ability to achieve great things. As one might guess, such people are dependable, calm, and modest. Like their animal namesake, the Ox is unswervingly patient, tireless in their work, and capable of enduring any amount of hardship without complaint."
-Attributes Of The Ox (Wikipedia)

 

“Iron rusts from disuse, stagnate water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen, even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind”
-Leonardo da Vinci

 

 

“Silence is a true friend who never betrays”
-Confucius

 

 

“If an idiot were to tell you the same story for a year, you would end by believing it.”
-Horace Mann

 

 

“Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“There’s been a breakdown between the conduct of politics and the people”
-Yoshimi Watanabe, last night…

 

 

“If it's a good idea, go ahead and do it. It is much easier to apologize than it is to get permission”
~ Admiral Grace Hopper

 

 

“The magic lies in orchestrating the extremes…”
-Mick Malisic, 2008

 

 

“The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious. It is the fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science...”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power.”
~ Abraham Lincoln

 

 

"As the facts change, I change... what do you do, Sir?"
-John Maynard Keynes

 

 

 

“All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what no one can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.”
-The Art of War, Sun Tzu

 

 

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write… but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”
-Alvin Toffler

 

 

“We think it’s a mistake for managers to use gates and other tools to limit investor access to their funds”
-John Paulson (December 2008 Paulson & Co. letter to investors)

 

 

 

"To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to remember it."
-Confucius

 

 

"The only blind person at Christmas time is he who has not Christmas in his heart."
-Hellen Keller

 

 

"The winters of my childhood were long, long seasons. We lived in three places - the school, the church and the skating rink - but our real life was on the skating rink." - Rich Carrier ("The Hockey Sweater")

 

 

“The key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority”
 ~ Kenneth Blanchard

 

 

“Darkness is cheap, and Scrooge liked it.”
-Charles Dickens

 

 

“So get ready.  I mean, get ready.”
-Hank Williams Jr.

 

 

The Depression came to be as a function of “the lack of honor of men in high places.”
-Franklin D. Roosevelt, at the DNC in 1932

 

 

“One measure of leadership is the caliber of people who choose to follow you.”
~ Dennis Peer

 

 

“Those times when I’ve been down, when I’ve been kicked around, I hold onto those. In a way, those are the best times I’ve ever had, because that’s when I’ve found out who I am. And what I want to be.”
-Brett Favre

 

 

“The quality of a leader is reflected in the standards they set for themselves”.
~ Ray Kroc, Founder of McDonald’s

 

 

“There is nothing new except what is forgotten.”

-Rose Bertin

 

 

“The great danger for most of us lies in not setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark.”

 -Michelangelo

 

 

“Who can be wise, amazed, temperate and furious, loyal and neutral, in a moment? – No man.”

-William Shakespeare

 

 

“The ability to learn faster than your competitors may be only sustainable competitive advantage.”
-Arie de Geus

 

 

“The successful warrior is the average man, with laser-like focus.”

-Bruce Lee

 

 

“He is mad past recovery, but yet he has lucid intervals.”

-Miguel de Cervantes

 

 

“The tighter you squeeze, the less you have.”

-Thomas Merton

 

 

"Whether you think you can or think you can't - you are right. "

-Henry Ford

 

 

“Never hold discussions with the monkey when the organ grinder is in the room.”

-Winston Churchill

 

 

“Fear has its use but cowardice has none.”

-Mahatma Ghandi

 

 

“Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.”

-Napoleon Bonaparte

 

 

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.”

-Cicero, 55 BC

 

 

“The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved."
-Confucius

 

 

“I may not be alive to see the crisis, but my soul will come back to haunt you.”
-Paul Volcker (February 2nd, 2010)

 

 

“If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be called research, would it?”

-Albert Einstein

 

 

“Wide acceptance of an idea is not proof of its validity.”
-Dan Brown (The Lost Symbol)

 

 

“When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us.”   
-Alexander Graham Bell

 

 

“The most important quality in a leader is that of being acknowledged as such.”

~ Andre Maurois

 

 

“At the same time I realize that the best of all tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape.”

-Jesse Livermore

 

 

“Desperation is sometimes as powerful an inspirer as genius.”

-Benjamin Disraeli

 

 

“We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know – and those who don’t know what they don’t know.”

-John Kenneth Galbraith

 

 

"The Constitution does not just protect those whose views we share; it also protects those with whose views we disagree."
-Edward Kennedy

 

 

“A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

"That's not a bad thing. I'd take a bleeding nose for a win, wouldn't you?"
-Dave Tippett

 

 

“A true friendship develops on the basis of genuine human affection, not money or power. Of course, due to your power or wealth, more people may approach you with big smiles or gifts. But deep down these are not real friends of yours; these are friends of your wealth or power.”
- Dalai Lama

 

 

“Learn all you can from the mistakes of others.  You won't have time to make them all yourself.”  
-Alfred Sheinwold

 

"In the mountains, the shortest way is from peak to peak: but for that you must have long legs.”
-Friedrich Nietzsche

 

 

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”

-George Soros

 

 

“It's not just a rock.  It's forty-two pounds of polished granite, with a beveled underbelly and a handle a human being can hold.  Okay, so in and of itself it looks like it has no practical purpose, but it's a repository of possibility.”

-Paul Gross

 

 

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.                               

-Albert Einstein

 

 

There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact...

-Sherlock Holmes

 

“If you establish a democracy, you must in due time reap the fruits of a democracy. You will in due season have great impatience of the public burdens, combined in due season with great increase of the public expenditure. You will in due season have wars entered into from passion and not from reason; and you will in due season submit to peace ignominiously sought and ignominiously obtained, which will diminish your authority and perhaps endanger your independence. You will in due season find your property is less valuable, and your freedom less complete.”
–Benjamin Disraeli

 

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

 - John Wooden

 

 

"One reason why mathematics enjoys special esteem, above all other sciences, is that its laws are absolutely certain and indisputable... while those of other sciences are to some extent debatable and in constant danger of being overthrown by newly discovered facts." -Albert Einstein

 

 

``I believe in substance... I don't believe that you get things done just by getting together and having a drink or laughing, or interacting personally. While that's never a negative, you need to bring value.'' -Hank Paulson

 

 

"A man's feet should be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world."

-George Santayana

 

 

 "I'll study and get ready, and then...the chance will come"

-Abraham Lincoln

 

 

"Rule #1: Do not lose money. Rule #2: Do not lose money. Rule #3: Never forget rules 1 and 2."

-Roy Neuberger

 

 

"One of life's most painful moments comes when we must admit that we didn't do our homework, that we are not prepared."

-Merlin Olson

 

 

An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come."

-Victor Hugo

 

 

Look at the means which a man employs, consider his motives, observe his pleasures. A man simply cannot conceal himself!

-Confucius

 

 

"There is no squabbling so violent as that between people who accepted an idea yesterday and those who will accept the same idea tomorrow."

- C. Morley

 

 

"You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealins done."

-Kenny Rogers', The Gambler

 

 

No problem can be solved from the same consciousness that created it.

-Albert Einstein

 

 

"Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce... and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate."                                                              

                                                         - James A. Garfield, assassinated President of the U.S.

 

 

"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm the government and I'm here to help"

-Ronald Reagan

 

 

The Definition of Insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results"

-Albert Einstein

 

 

"Be the change that you want to see in the world"

-Gandhi

 

 

To put up with distortions... and to stick to one's guns come what may - this is the gift of leadership.

~ Mohandas Gandhi

 

 

"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough"

-Albert Einstein

 

 

"If you have an important point to make, don't try to be subtle or clever... Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. Then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time - a tremendous whack."

-Winston Churchill

 

 

Don't tell people how to do things, tell them what to do and let them surprise you with their results.

~ George S. Patton

 

 

"It is important to foster individuality, for only the individual can produce new ideas"

-Albert Einstein

 

 

Lead, follow or get out of the way!

-George S. Patton

 

 

"You'll miss 100% of the shots you don't take"

-Wayne Gretzky

 

 

"It's like there's a bunch of guys that are making it up as they go along... They talk about transparency and what they present is opacity, programs that don't make sense, or are not yet fully laid out. This only increases the already high level of uncertainty and anxiety."

-Anna Schwartz (co-author with Milton Friedman of "A Monetary History of the United States")

 

 

"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism."

-John Templeton

 

 

"Insanity in the individual is something rare... but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule."

-Nietzche

 

 

"You been hearing about how bad I am since you were a little kid with mess in your pants! Tonight, I'm gonna whip you till you cry like a baby."

-Muhammad Ali (1974, to George Foreman prior to the "Rumble In the Jungle" fight)

 

 

"I don't like Bull Riders..... They're little men with big egos. Besides, he's got one of them skinny butts like the rest of em'."

-Kellie Frost

 

 

“What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know.”
-Warren Buffett
 

“And remember, no matter where you go, there you are…”
-Confucius
 

“A man may die, nations may rise and fall, but an idea lives forever.”
-John F. Kennedy
 

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and Third, by experience, which is the bitterest.”
-Confucius


Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with the important matters.
~ Albert Einstein

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”
-Abraham Lincoln
 

“Rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are”
-Franklin D. Roosevelt
 

“Study the past if you would define the future.”
-Confucius

 

“Sharp downward movements do that… they focus the mind… like a good hanging used to in the old West.”
-Judge Roy Bean

 

“I have to believe that when things are bad I can change them.”
-Jimmy Braddock (Cinderella Man, 2005)
 

 

“Move your hands, move your feet!”
-Tim Taylor
 

“No matter how busy you may think you are, you must find time for reading, or surrender yourself to self-chosen ignorance.”
-Confucius



“Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure.”
-Confucius

 

“He who thinketh he leadeth and hath no one following him is only taking a walk.”
~ Anonymous
 

“What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know.”
-Warren Buffett

 

"Every organization must be prepared to abandon everything it does to survive in the future."
~ Peter Drucker

 

“Question every premise, challenge conventional wisdom, and never accept the truth of something merely because everyone else views it as obvious.”
-Albert Einstein
 

“The policies of the developed nations on these institutions are not clear. Until they are clear, I don’t dare to invest in them. What if they go bust? I will lose everything.”
-Lou Jiwei (Chairman Of China Investment Corp.)
 

“You're looking for players whose name on the front of the sweater is more important than the one on the back”
-Herb Brooks

 

 

“You wanna settle old scores, you're on the wrong team. We move forward starting right now.”
-Herb Brooks (Miracle)

 

 

“To go beyond is as wrong as to fall short.”

-Confucius

 

 

"Doing what you like is freedom. Liking what you do is happiness."

-Frank Tyger 

 

 

“It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.”

-Amos Tversky

 

 

“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.”

-Leroy Satchel Paige

 

 

“The United States needs to move very fast to even standstill.”
-John F. Kennedy

 

 

"Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can?"
-Sun Tzu

 

 

“Success is how high you bounce when you hit the bottom.”

-General George S. Patton

 

 

“If I had lived through the Depression, I would have been in a better position to understand events.”
-John Meriwether

 

 

“I never met anybody who said when they were a kid, ‘I wanna grow up and be a critic’”
-Richard Pryor

 

 

“It's impossible to work under conditions where they confused negativity with objectivity. You can't fool the fans.”
-Marv Albert

 

 

“When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt.”
-Henry Kaiser

 

 

“An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less.”
-Nicholas Murray

 

 

A guy walks up to me and asks 'What's Punk?'. So I kick over a garbage can and say 'That's punk!'. So he kicks over a garbage can and says 'That's Punk', and I say 'No that's trendy!”
–Billie Joe Armstrong, Singer, Green Day

 

 

“If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril.”
-Sun Tzu

 

 

“This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave.”
-Elmer Davis

 

 

“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”
–John F. Kennedy

 

 

“There are whole fields, like the financial world, where scientific thinking hasn’t greatly penetrated. It is mainly about assertion, personality, and salesmanship.”
-David Harding

 

 

“Of course not, but the authorities decided it that way, and they are the ones that rule.”
-Geronimo

 

 

“We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know what they don’t know.”
-John Kenneth Galbraith

 

“The future belongs to people who see possibilities before they become obvious.”
-Ted Levitt

 

 

“It is better to have less thunder in the mouth and more lightning in the hand.”
–Apache Proverb

 

 

“The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.”
-Ernest Hemingway

 

 

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.  It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
-Mark Twain

 

 

“It was the sittin’ and the waitin’ that made me all the money.”
-Jesse Livermore

 

 

“I will never quit. I persevere and thrive on adversity. My Nation expects me to be physically harder and mentally stronger than my enemies. If knocked down, I will get back up, every time. I will draw on every remaining ounce of strength to protect my teammates and accomplish our mission. I am never out of the fight.”
-US Navy SEALs

 

 

“Just because nobody complains doesn’t mean all parachutes are perfect.”
-Benny Hill

 

 

“You have a nasty habit of surviving.”
-Kamal Kahn

 

 

“Nothing is more obstinate than a fashionable consensus.”
-Margaret Thatcher

 

 

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
-Warren Buffett

 

 

"A little knowledge is dangerous. So is a lot.”
-Albert Einstein

 

 

“Two extremes: to exclude reason, to admit reason only.”
-Pascal

 

 

“By trying often the monkey learns to jump from the tree.”
-African Proverb

 

 

“The key to change is to let go of fear.”
-Rosanne Cash

 

 

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
- Sir Winston Churchill

 

 

“The most incomprehensible thing about the world is that it is comprehensible.”
-Albert Einstein


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