Volatility markets are coming around quickly to the currency move with the USD index +30bps again this morning. In the Euro specifically (because it has been a topic we’ve highlighted as a risk quite a bit this year), it’s not only that IVOL at-the-money is higher, skew has moved marginally less bullish.
Meanwhile, the Euro is just off the all-time highs in speculative bullish futures & options open interest.
The Euro currency volatility surfaces are being pulled higher and more bullish toward the USD. In other words, investors are starting to worry about the currency move which took some time to develop.
That’s the typical sequence of things when long-standing trends break.