OMNIBUS = CLOSER TO CLEAN: The House Republican leadership still hasn’t sewn up the requisite support needed for the $1.3 T Omnibus spending bill after weeks of haggling and horse trading. Or attempts to horse trade. With the Friday deadline fast approaching, Republicans have spent the past 48 hours tossing some of the most contentious issues overboard. While attempts were still being made last night (resuming this am) to salvage some of the riders, time is running out and negotiators are closer to a clean Omnibus which is precisely where we said they’d end up. The final measure is still in flux, but border funding, NICS, an FAA extension and the Gateway Project, among a shrinking list of other issues, are rumored to still be in play or may be left bobbing in the Potomac River with other discarded policy riders. The final package is expected to be ready in time for a House Republican Conference meeting at 9am today, but we're not ruling out a delay.
TAX PART DEUX?: Talk continues at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue on phase two of tax cuts primarily aimed at permanence for individuals set to expire in 2025. Both President Trump and Way and House Means Committee Chairman Kevin have been touting the yet-to-be-released package, but smart money in Washington is on the side of the skeptics. Remember, Republicans are highly unlikely to pass a budget resolution this year – hence no reconciliation instructions - hence Democrats would be needed to pass this round without having cast a single ‘yea’ vote in the Senate the first time around - putting them in a bind now that the focus is on inviduals. With Larry Kudlow coming on board the White House, look for lowering the capital gains rate to be part of any tax measure given his stalwart support on the issue over the decades. Mark your calendars for the introduction of the measure on or around – you guessed it – April 15. And expect to see both tax cut parts 1 and 2 featured in every Republican campaign ad through November 6.
SAUDI SWING: President Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today before bin Salman leaves for a two-week coast-to-coast tour aimed at bolstering Saudi Arabia’s economic ties between the two countries hitting the major pillars of the U.S. economy even as members of Congress are trying to cut off American military support for a Saudi-led bombing campaign in Yemen. Eyebrows are also being raised on the Hill over the scant number of deals that have come to fruition after Trump announced $200B in agreements with the kingdom during his visit there in early 2017.
JUDGES SPURN PA REPUBLICANS – NEW MAP STANDS: A panel of federal judges dismissed a lawsuit challenging Pennsylvania's new congressional map, which was imposed by the state's Supreme Court last month, and the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a separate request from top Republican state lawmakers that it step in and block the map. On the heels of Conor Lamb’s upset victory in PA-18 last week, the back-to-back decisions were a huge blow to Republicans who had sought to block the map from being used in this year's elections and improved Democrats’ chances of picking up seats in an important swing state – and changes the for the congressional elections. The current split is 13-5 in favor of the Republicans and we’re sticking to our guns - Democrats are likely to pick up at least four seats in the Keystone state this fall.
WHAT CANADIAN TRADE DEFICIT?: The Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers – Kevin Hassett - will deliver the Economic Report of the President to Members of Congress and the Senate Budget Committee tomorrow. We’re hearing that there is nothing in the report about America’s trade deficit with Canada, which Trump said last week that he made up in a conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
TRIAL KICKS OFF FAVORABLY FOR AT+T (T, TWX): The court seems inclined to reject admissibility of some key FCC filings and other evidence backing DOJ's vertical foreclosure theories. Read Paul Glenchur's latest from the court here.
WHITE HOUSE ISSUES BAN ON VENEZUELA PETRO-CURRENCY SCHEME | Joe McMonigle writes that oil sanctions are still on the table but paused due to Tillerson/Cohn departures. His piece here.
CALL REPLAY | USH, ACHC AND AAC AND THE FEDERAL/STATE RESPONSE TO THE OPIOID CRISIS: Listen to our healthcare team discuss rapidly changing Federal and State payment policies and what they mean to AAC, ACHC and UHS. Check it out here.
KIM, TRUMP AND A PEACE PRIZE: Read General Dan Christman's latest piece on the machinations surrounding North Korea here.
AT&T/TIME WARNER | KEY AREAS OF FOCUS (T,TWX): The DOJ challenge goes to trial this week. AT&T is still the favorite, but investors should focus on the government's core strategies. Read Paul Glenchur's latest here.
CALL REPLAY | ROLLING BACK DODD-FRANK: Last week, the Senate passed the bipartisan ECONOMIC GROWTH, REGULATORY RELIEF, AND CONSUMER PROTECTION ACT (S. 2155) sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo by a vote of 67-31. The path to the measure becoming law is uncertain as negotiations with House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling have hit an impasse. We discussed the Senate deregulation bill, convergence with Hensarling's efforts and next steps. CLICK HERE to listen to a replay of the call.
