A KINDLER AND GENTLER TRUMP?: President Donald Trump’s State of the Union and second speech to a joint session of Congress was as even-keeled as the first, this time around touting the successes of the past year with flashes of bipartisanship and full of optimism for the future. Gone was the fiery rhetoric reserved for Twitter or the take-no-prisoner rallies held well outside the confines of the Washington beltway. To us, it felt the same as past Republican speeches given in the House chamber. But we think the glow will rub off shortly and we’ll be back to normalcy within a matter of days. Many pundits have been commenting on how toxic the atmosphere was while observing and interacting with Democrats and we’ve been observing that sentiment for weeks, if not months now. One speech will not erase the 2000 + tweets over the past 375 days.
With that, Trump’s four-pronged immigration pillars are generally the same ideas he’s touted since he descended the escalator at Trump Tower back in 2016. And Democrats were unmoved, if not antagonized by his rhetoric – while conservative Republicans and his base will revel in it. We don’t see a path to a comprehensive immigration bill or DACA fix anytime soon without Trump inserting himself into the process – especially in the House. And the issue continues to impede budget negotiations with the CR expiring in eight days. We still view the chances of Trump’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan through the lens of January/early February and how the parties deal with a number of critical issues leftover from 2017.
DOUR DEMOCRATS: Finally, we’re not sure the Democrats did anything to help their cause last night. We understand why they may not be enamored with this president or his agenda, but there were a number of junctures where they just looked angry and bitter. And, who was the genius who let four other Democrats jumble the main response from Rep. Joseph Kennedy III? You'd think they could pull off something more substantial with the wind at their backs headed into the 2018 midterms.
DEADLINE #5: We’re eight days away (yes, the House and Senate are now in recess until next week) from the expiration of the fifth CR and hopes for a deal are diminishing by the hour. First, how this latest version will become entangled with the DACA issue will be determined by the status of the immigration negotiations – which to date are yielding little or no fruit. As a separate issue, the word coming out is that many of the specific appropriations issues may actually be close to being settled. But, the blame game is already underway with Democrats saying Republicans are wavering given the $100B increase in defense and domestic spending and Republicans are claiming the Democrats are divided with a good chunk of them still wedded to tying a budget deal to a DACA solution. At this point, the only faction that appears to keep the shutdown embers burning are the 2020 Democrats.
IT'S A MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD WORLD: Join us next Friday, February 9 at 10am for a geopolitical call with Gen Dan Christman. Find the details here.
ROCK AND A HARD PLACE l CERN CONTRACT WITH VA CAUGHT BETWEEN INTEROPERABILITY AND PROCUREMENT REALITIES: Our Health Care Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes that interoperability demands from VA are nearly impossible to execute; scaled back contract more attractive protest target. Read her piece here.
DEFENSE QUARTERLY EARNINGS: Pentagon Outlays Up 11.4% Y/Y, 6.4% Q/Q Auspicious for LMT, BA, RTN, et al. Our Senior Defense Analyst General Emo Gardner writes DoD investment outlays Oct-Dec were up 11.4% Y/Y and 6.4% Q/Q, auguring excellent Q4 defense company earnings reports. Read his piece here.
PAKISTAN AND THE U.S.: AT THE FORK? Read General Dan Christman's latest missive on the U.S. state of play in Pakistan here.
