Good morning! You can enjoy today's The Macro Show with CEO Keith McCullough and Energy analyst Alec Richards HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) ATHs – Pre-open all-time highs in SPY and the Russell 2000 tapped its prior all-time closing highs yesterday at 1548. We don’t tell you to buy the all-time highs; we are buyers of the damn dips – looking forward to the next one; today we book gains.
2) ITALY – Not all-time highs for European Equities this morning as they have been a real stinker relative to USA in December (S&P 500 +2.3% in the last month vs. Spain and Italy down -2.1% and -1.5%, respectively). Interesting move in Italian bond yields as well this morning +5bps to 1.99%, taking them +21bps in the last month.
3) USD – After a terrible year for the USD, it will signal immediate-term #oversold at year-end inasmuch as the EUR/USD pair will signal immediate-term #overbought.
In Case You Missed It
McCullough: ‘Presidents Don't Drive the Economy’
All year long, Hedgeye’s macro team has had a higher GDP forecast than Wall Street consensus. Not only were we higher than the forecast, we were the most accurate forecast.
And while President Trump might like to take full credit for accelerating U.S. growth, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says no so fast. As he pointed out during a recent episode of The Macro Show, presidents don’t drive the economy.
“[The acceleration in growth] didn’t have to do with Trump,” McCullough says in the clip above. “It had to do with comparing against an economic recession in profit terms at the end of Obama’s reign.”
Incidentally, Hedgeye is predicting a third straight quarter of GDP over 3.0% on a headline basis.
“The economy drives the economy. Hardworking people drive the economy. The cycle drives the economy,” McCullough says. “So when you have something to compare against that’s easy, the probability goes up that you accelerate.”
Watch the clip HERE for more.
