GOIN’ HUNTING: Speaker Paul Ryan laid out his timeline for passing tax reform yesterday, saying they expect to be through a bill by deer-hunting season (Thanksgiving). As soon as they get through the budget, the House Ways and Means Committee will release draft legislation for tax reform - with a target of early next week. His ambitious timeline has them squarely focused on an internal lobbying campaign hunting for votes. Their goal is to pass this bill the first time around to avoid significant delays - but will have to carefully straddle divided factions of the Republican Party. While optimism is mounting, we expect an impasse (or four) along the road to December – there’s a reason reform hasn’t happened in 31 years and three days – it’s far from simple and Republicans are now attempting to do in 10 weeks that which took President Ronald Reagan and Congress 13 months to pass in 1986.
ARBITRATION AHEAD: The Senate voted to reverse the CFPB arbitration rule last night. The House used the Congressional Review Act (CRA) months ago to block the regulation, but Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did not have the votes. Senators John Kennedy (R-LA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) voted against the block along with Democrats, requiring Veep Mike Pence to cast the tie-breaking vote. The now defunct rule would ban big banks from putting arbitration language that protects them from class-action lawsuits in the fine print. The Treasury Department found that removing arbitration language would result in over 3,000 new class-action lawsuits a year - something the Louisiana and South Carolina legal industry and consumer advocate groups believe is necessary to level the playing field for those wronged by big corporations.
TWEETER-IN-CHIEF: While we try to focus on policy over politics, the infighting between Republicans has spilled over into tax debates. President Trump’s obsession with Twitter has become a distraction for Congressional leaders. At first, we heard that his Tweets would keep the media focus off the Hill (wishful thinking) and allow Congress to keep their heads down and work around the clock on their agenda. Now, Trump is using it as a means to pressure other Republicans. He needs their support. He needs them on the same page. Considering we are barely through the slog of the budget - agitating Senators or going back on your word makes tax reform harder than it’s already going to be. Taxing.
BATTLING BOEING: Bombardier’s C-Series aircraft has been in the center of a fight with Boeing. Boeing has been pushing for a 300% tariff on aircrafts and aircraft parts imported into the U.S. - a type of protectionism the Trump Administration understands. However, Airbus who manufactures in Mobile, AL is making moves to take a majority stake in the C-Series. It is unclear if this merger would exempt the C-Series from a 300% tariff - Boeing says it will not, despite some of their material being crafted in Europe and exempt. Trump’s Commerce Department has sided with Boeing - believing they are protecting some 70,000 U.S. jobs from unfair foreign government subsidies.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: President Trump is expected to a sign a disaster relief bill after it passed the Senate yesterday. The House crafted the legislation allocating more than the president had asked for - including $18.7 Billion for FEMA, $16 Billion to offset debt at NFIP, and about $500 Million for recovery from the California wildfires. The bill easily cleared Senate despite some Republicans refusing to vote for it unless it included a permanent lift to the Jones Act. Senators Mike Lee (R-UT), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Bob Corker (R-TN) were among the “no” votes - slamming the Jones Act’s protectionism. Puerto Rico is still in crisis mode with the majority of the island without power for about 50 days. This bill also gives Puerto Rico over $1 Billion to ensure access to nutrition and access to $4.9 Billion in low-interest loans from the FEMA funding.
ANNOUNCING OUR NEW LEGAL CATALYSTS VERTICAL WITH PAUL GLENCHUR: We are pleased to announce the launch of our new Legal Catalysts vertical, highlighting key cases and legal developments with significant potential impact across multiple sectors. Paul Glenchur, our longtime telecom and media analyst, but also a former federal appellate court law clerk, attorney, and member of the Supreme Court Bar, will lead this research offering. Check it out here.
FERC COMMENT PERIOD ENDS ON DOE PROPOSAL TO AID COAL & NUCLEAR: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that we believe FERC is open to the DOE proposal, but is likely to extend consideration by months. Similar FERC action would be closer to March 2018. Read the full piece here.
EPA REVERSES COURSE ON RFS & RINS POLICY AFTER IOWA HOSTAGE TAKING: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that Iowa Senators blocked an EPA nominee and Trump caved on biofuels policy, but an EPA letter providing assurances also raises litigation risk. Read the full piece here.
SENATE BUDGET RESOLUTION DOES NOT RESOLVE DEFENSE BUDGET: Our Senior Defense Analyst Emo Gardner writes that the Senate Budget Resolution does not remove defense spending caps. Read the full piece here.
CYNICS BEWARE | SENATE STEPS ON THE GAS FOR TAX REFORM: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes that last night’s vote avoids two key potential speed bumps - conference and House Budget; expect health care to feature in upcoming debate. Read the full piece here.
