Particularly in the wake of the UK Brexit vote in 2016, 2017 has been described as an existential test for European democracy and its push-back against populism and extremism; national elections in The Netherlands, France, and Germany were to be the major test-beds.
- The fortunate results in both The Netherlands and France, where centrist candidates Mark Rutte and Emmanuel Macron triumphed over far-right opponents, reassured both markets and EU-inclined voters throughout the continent; Angela Merkel is expected to continue the encouraging trend later this month when Germans head to the polls on September 24th to elect a new Bundestag and Chancellor.
Despite these encouraging results, political populism and extremism are not dead on the continent - nor is Vladimir Putin’s desire to leverage both to Moscow’s advantage.
- For reasons hard to explain, Russia has not yet “churned into overdrive” (in the words of Washington Post reporter Griff Witte) to try to turn the so-far favorable electoral tide against Merkel; she seems safe to earn her fourth term as the most popular and most anti-Putin leader on the continent.
- But the European electoral show doesn’t end on the 24th, nor will Putin’s efforts to support those candidates on the fringes who are anti-EU, anti-U.S., and anti-free market.
Look at three national elections in Europe, beyond Germany’s this month; each will be fertile ground for Moscow’s influence operations and an excellent opportunity to gauge the ability of pro-western governments to counter.
- First, Austria’s legislative elections in October, where the leader of the far-right “Freedom Party” has repeatedly signaled his support of France’s Marine LePen, voiced his skepticism of any efforts to “deepen” the EU, and campaigns under the slogan, ”We must not be Istanbul!”
- Then Denmark’s regional elections in November, where a young, charismatic leader of the “New Right” party, besides citing the ritual pledge from the right to limit immigration, is also committing her party to “follow the UK and lead Denmark out of the EU!”
- And finally, in the most important early test next year, there is Italy’s national election, likely to be held before May 2018; here, comedian Beppe Grillo, leader of the “Five Star Movement,” promises a referendum on EU membership, one he hopes will mirror the UK result.
These elections plus Germany’s next week will not only test democracy’s resilience on the continent; they will also cast light on governments’ ability to fight back against influence operations and efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the democratic process by foreign power adversaries.
- The Post’s Witte ascribes some of Germany’s success against Russia’s meddling to an aggressive campaign to “publicize and combat Russian sabotage efforts as they emerge.” Our own Congress last year saw the wisdom of such an effort and appropriated nearly $80 million to counter terror propaganda and Russian dis-information.
But curiously, despite the Congressional foresight, the $80 million has not been spent by our State Department, nor evidently have plans been prepared by Secretary Tillerson to do so. The unwillingness to obligate these funds, as Russian influence efforts become ever-more sophisticated, is yet another mystery in the enigmatic, nine-month-long Trump Administration relationship with Russia and its authoritarian, anti-EU, anti-western leader.
