ROLLING CLAIMS KEEP HEADING LOWER

The 432k print this morning marks a further step in the right direction from the slightly revised 454k print last week (up from 452k).

 

The rolling average claims improved this week to 460k from 466k last week - an improvement of 6k, slightly better than the slope of 5.2k/week since March (9 months of data). We are keeping a close eye on this metric as rolling claims are the leading indicator for ongoing recovery in the economy and, by extension, the loan books for consumer lenders. It’s worth mentioning that claims do experience some seasonality, as people are, on the margin, less likely to file around the holidays, so it is normal to see rolling improvement through mid-January followed by an upswing thereafter. If claims fail to rise post the normal seasonal January improvement this will be a particularly strong sign that the jobless environment is continuing to improve.

 

ROLLING CLAIMS KEEP HEADING LOWER - 1

 

For those wondering how to interpret a possible inflection in rolling claims in coming weeks, should there be one, we would suggest using a positive slope of 7.2k/week as an outer risk band. This is the fastest weekly rate at which rolling claims increased over a two week period since the trend of improvement began in March. Alternatively, in the absolute, one can use 485-490k as a near-term rolling upper limit based on the downward channel that's been in place since March.


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