The disturbing June 5th announcement by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE that they were severing diplomatic relations with Qatar and suspending air, land and sea travel to a fellow GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) member came as a surprise; it was publicized on the heels of what appeared to be a largely successful visit by the president to Riyadh, to meet fifty regional leaders. But now, weeks into a crisis that involves key U.S. friends and allies in the region on both sides of the dispute, the intensity of the rupture has only increased; any thought that the GCC will quickly paper over the disagreements has been disabused.
- To bring the sides together will undoubtedly require the U.S. to play an active mediation role – as the U.S. has done numerous times over the last decades in helping to resolve similar disputes amongst our Arab friends. Unfortunately, tweets by the president in the days immediately following the diplomatic rupture - tweets that strongly backed the Saudi effort and appeared to take credit for the diplomatic assault against Qatar - have lessened the chances that Washington can play this role. This reality was underscored last week by State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert, who said Secretary of State RexTillerson, despite numerous calls and meetings on the issue, now sees little room for U.S. mediation. Disturbingly, both sides will find it difficult to back down in the absence of U.S. “good offices.”
Qatar has increasingly been the GCC’s “odd-man-out.” Qatar’s emir, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, prizes his nation’s independence from the Saudis; like his immediate predecessors, the emir wants to avoid, in the words of a former U.S. Ambassador to Doha, “Qatar becoming another vassal state like Bahrain.”
While the underlying reasons for the diplomatic rupture may never be completely clear, the “13 point list of demands” just leveled on Qatar by the Saudis and the UAE points to grievances years in the making; the list includes the following demands: sever all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizbollah and formally declare them as “terrorist groups;” shut down the pro-Islamist al Jazeera news service as well as all its affiliates; curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close all Iranian diplomatic posts; and terminate immediately the Turkish military presence in country.
- These Saudi/UAE demands (and many others on the extensive list) will be almost impossible to comply with. And the demands complicate Tillerson’s and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’s roles immensely because Qatar has been closely allied with the U.S. in its anti-ISIS fight: Qatar provides critical logistical support from its massive al-Udeid airbase just outside Doha, a base that also houses the forward operating headquarters of U.S. Central Command.
Businesses in Qatar have been hit as a result of land and air travel constraints on the movement of workers. But the diplomatic rupture is not a complete economic boycott; international shipping lanes are still being used, gas pipelines remain open with contracts honored, and countries like Iran, India, and Turkey are helping offset food supply shortages; further, Qatar’s financial reserves are substantial.
The real issue at this point is how this crisis can be brought to a resolution. This is the second major international incident affecting the Trump national security team, North Korea being the first. Unlike the Pyongyang crisis, however, where the President and his team are generally on the same sheet of music, with Qatar the diplomatic notes are discordant.
- Tillerson has been urging reconciliation and compromise – "Let's finish this," in his words. SECDEF Mattis is sending the same message. The president must realize that the more heated this dispute with Qatar becomes, the closer Doha is pushed to Iran. Trump needs to back off and give his (still) embryonic national security team a fighting chance to apply their considerable diplomatic skills. There’s a lot at stake!
