Few countries have mattered more to the U.S. as a strategic partner than Germany. Joining NATO in 1955, West Germany then and a united Deutschland now have been at the center of every security initiative launched by the U.S. affecting continental Europe and the Soviet Union/Russia; and for the most part – the 2003 Iraq War being the exception – the U.S. and Germany have been joined at the hip as aligned, alliance partners and friends.
· In this light especially, the harshness of the White House treatment of Germany generally, and of Angela Merkel personally, seems inexplicable. Mr. Trump seems bent on excoriating Germany and its Chancellor at every opportunity – over trade, defense spending, and its leadership in the EU. What accounts for the treatment?
Particularly in the wake of the president’s Middle East, Israel, NATO, and G-7 trip last month, an emerging Trump foreign policy “doctrine” is slowly emerging; that doctrine is best understood through at least four lenses:
- An ethno-nationalist lens, where any association with multi-national organizations or international agreements is viewed darkly as “sacrificing sovereignty.”
- An “America First” lens, where U.S. interests are prioritized over U.S. values.
- A mercantilist lens, where trade imbalances determine which countries are “good” and which are “bad.”
- And finally, an interpersonal lens, where the warmth of a foreign leader's outreach to the President shapes nation-to-nation relations; Japanese PM Shinzo Abe understood this immediately.
For Germany and its assertive, experienced, pro-U.S. Chancellor, every vector of the Trump doctrine seems to intersect in Berlin and with Angela, with unfortunate implications:
- The European Union, where Merkel is clearly the acknowledged leader, comes in for special White House opprobrium because of the supra-national nature of Brussels-based authorities. National leaders ceding sovereignty to the EU (after all, it’s what being in the EU means!) succumb to what presidential advisor Steve Bannon calls “globalism” and “cosmopolitanism;” to him, such leaders are undeserving of the title, Merkel especially.
- Unlike every U.S. president since WWII, Trump no longer views Europe as vital to U.S. interests; NATO is a “transactional” relationship, not a security alliance. If Germany is demeaned, in the Trump calculus, U.S. interests are little affected.
- Germany runs significant trade deficits with the U.S. – approximately $65B over the last twelve months. Although trade deficits are an incomplete measure of the strength of bilateral economic relations, Mr. Trump has seized on this measure – and the goods trade in autos in particular – to vilify the Federal Republic of Germany.
- Finally, Angela is not Shinzo Abe; and, she doesn’t play golf!
The worrisome downside to this German berating is that the U.S. and NATO are in serious need of domestic German political support in two critical areas: an increase in FRG defense spending to well above the 1.2% of GDP that Germany is presently expending; and support for what is likely to be a formal request soon of NATO by the White House for increases in coalition troop levels in Afghanistan.
· In both areas, to their credit, German political leaders have battled domestic reluctance and a nightmarish WWII history to nudge upwards their defense spending totals, and to continue to maintain nearly 1000 soldiers in the Afghan fight. Berating Germany and hectoring its Chancellor is not the way to induce the Germans to say,”Yes” to both U.S. requests.
