There are no good laws but such as repeal other laws.
- Andrew Johnson
HOME, JAMES: We’re going to be bludgeoned over the next few days with the news of the firing of FBI Director James Comey so we’ll be short on this one not looking to diminish the trauma of President Trump’s edict. Our view is that the impact to Trump’s agenda on Capitol Hill will ultimately be minimal (as long as a smoking gun isn’t exposed) mostly based on the notion that we’re months away from legislation on health care, tax reform or financial reform given what we’ve been saying about the glacial pace of the Senate. Don’t get us wrong, this is not a move designed to foster bipartisanship and good feelings on the Hill and it will only harden the deep-seeded animosity that exists with members of the opposition, but weren’t Republicans looking to tackle these issues without much - if any - support from Democrats anyway? The furor will likely die down as soon as Trump nominates a new director (we suspect sooner rather than later), as long he or she is in the mainstream.
MEADOWS’ MEDDLING:House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows has become the chief health care deal maker, and he is already making his influence felt in the Senate. Meadows is working with Senate Republicans to help guide them on changes with which House conservatives could live. While the Senate bill will almost certainly move closer to the center, conservatives may take changes in subsidies to replace the refundable tax credits that are included in the House bill. To deal with pre-existing conditions, Meadows has proposed a potential amendment that would allow insurers to offer plans that aren’t compliant to ACA regulations if they also offered four plans that will be compliant. If this gets added, he believes that Senate moderates will get on board; and if the Senate comes back with a bill that’s inclusive of Meadows proposals along with cuts to Planned Parenthood, the House could get behind the Senate bill.
SPEED BUMP: In a shot to President Trump’s infrastructure plans, the Texas House rejected a bill that would allow public-private partnerships for 18 highway projects. Texas now joins New Mexico and Mississippi who have tried unsuccessfully to pass similar measures this year. Trump’s proposal for infrastructure reform is expected to include $200 billion in public spending while private investment would make up the rest of the $1 trillion over the next ten years. A bipartisan group of Texas legislators opposed the bill because of their belief that public-private partnerships don’t work in rural or low-income areas that can’t support tolls or predictable revenue streams. This is going to be a tough hurdle that Trump, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and private sector supporters will have to overcome.
DON’T JUDGE A BOOK BY IT’S COVER: Conservatives can continue to rejoice in the fact that President Trump has kept his word with regard to his appointments of judges. Following the praise and triumph he received following the confirmation of SCOTUS Justice Neil Gorsuch, Trump moved forward with a slate of his next 10 federal judicial nominees. All ten judges appeal to the conservative wing of the country as they are all “originalists” in their interpretation of the Constitution. These nominees are just the tip of the iceberg as there are still more than 120 vacancies in the lower courts that need to be filled. While Trump’s tenure as president has been unconventional and unpredictable, his picks to fill the courts have been anything but…
LONG “RICH PEOPLE”: As U.S. stocks hit all-time highs, the wealthiest Americans are getting a real shot in the arm. “High end consumption in America is highly tethered to asset price inflation,” writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. “That’s because rich people own all the assets.” The top 10% of Americans own 85% of US financial assets. With the S&P 500 up 16.5% in the past year, luxury consumption is picking up once again. Luxury goods consumption is up +4.6% year-over-year in 2017 versus last year's paltry 1.2%. High-end spending hasn’t been this heady since peaking in 2014 at 6.5% when the S&P 500 was up 17.5%. The takeaway? Get long rich people...
CALL INVITE | NET NEUTRALITY: BATTLE AT THE FCC: Thursday May 11th at 11 AM ET.
CALL INVITE: OPEC MEETING PREVIEW WITH FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT AND ALGERIAN OIL MINISTER | Friday, May 12th at 11 AM ET.
THE REPUBLICAN AGENDA’S LONG, WINDING, ROAD AHEAD: Former Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, David Hoppe writes as work commences on a health care bill in the U.S. Senate today, the Capitol Hill veteran of 30 years offers his insight into the challenges that lie ahead for Republicans on Capitol Hill. You can find the full piece here.
There are no good laws but such as repeal other laws.
-
Andrew Johnson
HOME, JAMES: We’re going to be bludgeoned over the next few days with the news of the firing of FBI Director James Comey so we’ll be short on this one not looking to diminish the trauma of President Trump’s edict. Our view is that the impact to Trump’s agenda on Capitol Hill will ultimately be minimal (as long as a smoking gun isn’t exposed) mostly based on the notion that we’re months away from legislation on health care, tax reform or financial reform given what we’ve been saying about the glacial pace of the Senate. Don’t get us wrong, this is not a move designed to foster bipartisanship and good feelings on the Hill and it will only harden the deep-seeded animosity that exists with members of the opposition, but weren’t Republicans looking to tackle these issues without much - if any - support from Democrats anyway? The furor will likely die down as soon as Trump nominates a new director (we suspect sooner rather than later), as long he or she is in the mainstream.
MEADOWS’ MEDDLING:House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows has become the chief health care deal maker, and he is already making his influence felt in the Senate. Meadows is working with Senate Republicans to help guide them on changes with which House conservatives could live. While the Senate bill will almost certainly move closer to the center, conservatives may take changes in subsidies to replace the refundable tax credits that are included in the House bill. To deal with pre-existing conditions, Meadows has proposed a potential amendment that would allow insurers to offer plans that aren’t compliant to ACA regulations if they also offered four plans that will be compliant. If this gets added, he believes that Senate moderates will get on board; and if the Senate comes back with a bill that’s inclusive of Meadows proposals along with cuts to Planned Parenthood, the House could get behind the Senate bill.
DON’T JUDGE A BOOK BY IT’S COVER: Conservatives can continue to rejoice in the fact that President Trump has kept his word with regard to his appointments of judges. Following the praise and triumph he received following the confirmation of SCOTUS Justice Neil Gorsuch, Trump moved forward with a slate of his next 10 federal judicial nominees. All ten judges appeal to the conservative wing of the country as they are all “originalists” in their interpretation of the Constitution. These nominees are just the tip of the iceberg as there are still more than 120 vacancies in the lower courts that need to be filled. While Trump’s tenure as president has been unconventional and unpredictable, his picks to fill the courts have been anything but…
SPEED BUMP: In a shot to President Trump’s infrastructure plans, the Texas House rejected a bill that would allow public-private partnerships for 18 highway projects. Texas now joins New Mexico and Mississippi who have tried unsuccessfully to pass similar measures this year. Trump’s proposal for infrastructure reform is expected to include $200 billion in public spending while private investment would make up the rest of the $1 trillion over the next ten years. A bipartisan group of Texas legislators opposed the bill because of their belief that public-private partnerships don’t work in rural or low-income areas that can’t support tolls or predictable revenue streams. This is going to be a tough hurdle that Trump, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and private sector supporters will have to overcome.
LONG “RICH PEOPLE”: As U.S. stocks hit all-time highs, the wealthiest Americans are getting a real shot in the arm. “High end consumption in America is highly tethered to asset price inflation,” writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. “That’s because rich people own all the assets.” The top 10% of Americans own 85% of US financial assets. With the S&P 500 up 16.5% in the past year, luxury consumption is picking up once again. Luxury goods consumption is up +4.6% year-over-year in 2017 versus last year's paltry 1.2%. High-end spending hasn’t been this heady since peaking in 2014 at 6.5% when the S&P 500 was up 17.5%. The takeaway? Get long rich people...
CALL INVITE | NET NEUTRALITY: BATTLE AT THE FCC: Thursday May 11th at 11 AM ET.
CALL INVITE: OPEC MEETING PREVIEW WITH FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT AND ALGERIAN OIL MINISTER | Friday, May 12th at 11 AM ET.
THE REPUBLICAN AGENDA’S LONG, WINDING, ROAD AHEAD: Former Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, David Hoppe writes as work commences on a health care bill in the U.S. Senate today, the Capitol Hill veteran of 30 years offers his insight into the challenges that lie ahead for Republicans on Capitol Hill. You can find the full piece here.
