We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.
- Jimmy Carter
HITTING A WALL: President Trump has backed off his call to attach funding for his border wall to the CR days ahead of the April 28th deadline and the dark clouds looming over bipartisan, bicameral negotiations have lifted. If Congressional negotiators don’t come to an agreement by the end of the week, we expect them to pass a short, one-to-two week extension while they hammer out the remaining details. Trump was trying to use the Democrat’s call for funding of ObamaCare’s cost sharing program as a bargaining chip to ensure funding for his main campaign promise. Democrats and a good chunk of Republicans are opposed to using the spending bill as a vehicle for funding the border wall, and it looks as if the president is not willing to shutter the government over it. What makes the argument for wall funding harder to pass muster in the midst of a budget fight is that TX Rep. Will Hurd has come out against it - and his district covers over 800 of the 1200 miles along the border - and two other Republicans representing border districts have voiced skepticism while the rest of the border territory is made up of Democrats.
TAX MAN COMETH: Trump is scheduled to release his tax plan tomorrow and it will likely resemble the plan he proposed throughout the campaign. Additional details are trickling out, but it looks as if Trump plan will consist of three income tax brackets of 12 percent, 25 percent, and 33 percent in a move that aims to shift tax benefits from the wealthy to the middle class. The biggest opposition Trump will face is over the corporate tax rate which is headed towards 15% in the proposal. Sight unseen, Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch has already indicated that a 15% rate will not make it through the Senate and we suspect team Trump is sticking with his campaign number as their starting salvo. To add some sweeteners to try and win some Democratic votes there will likely be an infrastructure component as well as Ivanka Trump’s child care tax credit - but that won’t be enough to offset resistance to the proposed corporate rate. What’s missing? A border adjustment tax - and that’s likely to set off infighting amongst Republicans with support spearheaded by Ways and Means Chair Kevin Brady.
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER EXECUTIVE ORDER: President Trump has signed 32 executive orders since taking office, the most in the first 100 days of a presidency since World War II. After focusing on financial reform on Friday, he is now turning his energies to energy. The new order will call for a review of the locations available for offshore oil and gas exploration and of regulations governing offshore oil and gas exploration. This is a complete reversal of President Obama's orders that put large portions of the Arctic and many areas off the east coast permanently off limits and dovetails with Trump’s now consistent policy of promoting fossil fuels. Trump is also set to sign additional executive orders this week on agriculture, cybersecurity and veterans affairs.
LEVER ME UP: While it isn’t the $1 trillion Trump asked for, OMB Director Mick Mulvaney has indicated that an infrastructure plan would include $200 billion of taxpayer money. Mulvaney is expecting the ratio of private sector dollars to federal funding to be around 5 to 1. While the infrastructure package is in its early stage, it is expected to be part of the president's 2018 budget proposal. The package will work to upgrade the country's roads, bridges, and airports, and the full plan is expected to come into final form in late May. If Trump is able to get this into the budget, then he’ll be one step closer to understanding the art of Washington dealmaking.
THEY'RE BACK! CONGRESS RETURNS FROM SPRING BREAK TO FACE ACA REPEAL, FUNDING GOV'T AND CSR PAYMENTS: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst writes the pressure to act on ACA repeal is still intense but slow and steady wins the race. Funding the government the priority right now. You can find the full piece here.
