I do not look upon these United States as a finished product. We are still in the making.
-Franklin D. Roosevelt
KEEPING THE WEIGHT OFF: President Trump will unveil his “skinny” budget for the 2018 fiscal year later this week. Currently the only details show a $54 billion increase in defense spending to $603 billion which will be offset by decreases in non-defense discretionary spending to $462 billion. Many conservative Republicans are likely to cheer the bill with its cuts to domestic programs, but more moderate Republicans will be less than thrilled. The budget could force some moderates to choose between opposing the president or backing reductions in popular programs like assistance for disabled children. Unless there’s a change in the blueprint between now and Thursday, we don’t expect Trump’s proposal to make it through the upper chamber.
TIGHTENING THE BELT: Days ahead of his budget release, Trump signed an executive order that will “reorganize the federal government.” This executive order signed yesterday will be the first time the government has seen job cuts this large since the post WWII drawdown. The cuts remain in line with Trump’s plans for the federal government to have a smaller and less involved regulatory approach passing the power to the states. If Trump is able to get his budget through Congress combined with this executive order, then the federal government will face a realignment unseen in Washington for decades.
FIRST ROUND SCORE: The Congressional Budget Office score for the ACA replacement bill was released with the Trump Administration and allies on Capitol Hill taking measures to discredit the analysis. The report showed that in the next ten years 24 million people would become uninsured based on the current bill and premiums would rise until 2020 before beginning to decrease. It wasn’t all negative for Republicans though as it would decrease the federal deficit by $337 billion over the next 10 years - helping quell a conservative rebellion, but has moderates taking up arms.
LET’S MAKE A DEAL:Chinese President Xi Jingping will make his first appearance to the winter White House in early April. Xi is concerned about Trump’s threats on trade and hopes he can cut some sort of agreement with the “Dealer” in Chief. From Trump’s point of view, he’s looking to get cooperation on North Korea, currency, trade, and intellectual properties. With Mar a Lago as the setting, this will be Trump’s first bout with a major foreign power not considered a U.S. ally - and both men will be trying to outsmart and outmaneuver the other. Just not on the golf course.
WILD FINISH: On Wednesday the Dutch head to the polls to potentially vote on the future of Europe. With the election just days away it is a close race between far right candidate Geert Wilders of the Party of Freedom and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the more moderate People’s Party for Freedom. As we have seen in recent elections in the U.S. and the UK, the status quo is being seriously challenged. If the trend continues with Wilders winning, it could be yet another precursor to the rapidly approaching French election - and with that a disintegration of the European Union.
CALL INVITE / A BAT IN THE HOUSE: David French of the National Retail Federation will discuss the Border Adjustment Tax and Tax Policy on Retailers Under the Republican Congress + Trump Administration – March 17th at 11:00 AM. You can find a link to the call here.
