Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer, but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past. Let us accept our own responsibility for the future.
-John F. Kennedy
WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION DAY: We’re down to the ground game (bet you’re happy you won’t hear that phrase from us for a few more years) being the decisive factor as both campaigns are relying on voter turnout to tip the balance of the election. The Clinton campaign is working to increase African-American, Millennial and Hispanic (already at record levels) turnout and the Trump campaign is relying on large turnout among working class whites to help him win a critical string of battleground states in addition to a blue state. We breakdown what we are looking at throughout the day and into the evening:
FLORIDA: Early voting in FL concluded on Sunday and over 6.4 million votes were cast in person with Democrats casting almost 90,000 more votes than Republicans. The 6.4 million number means that almost 50 percent of registered voters have already voted. Democrats can’t rest easy though as Republicans do vote in higher numbers in FL on Election Day. The I-4 corridor, between St. Petersburg and Daytona Beach, is the key part of the Sunshine State where the election and the fate of the state’s 29 Electoral College votes - and likely the election - will be decided. This area which consists of Tampa and Orlando has two million registered Democrats, two million Republicans and 1.5 million independent voters making up 43 percent of FL voters. Keep an eye on Miami-Dade County and its half-million Hispanic votes, if Trump gets blown out here he has almost no chance of winning FL, and this is the only FL country he did not win in the primary. Broward Country, a very blue area, is another country to watch with voter turnout hitting record numbers over the weekend. Polls close at 8 PM.
PENNSYLVANIA: A Keystone State if we ever saw one - Clinton’s firewall must hold here with Trump closing the gap significantly in the past few weeks. The state does not have early voting which could be a good sign for the Clinton campaign as voters will have had time to digest the conclusion of the FBI investigation. Another big help for Clinton is the transit strikes ended in Philadelphia yesterday which means a key component of her electorate will have unobstructed access to the polls today. Polls close in PA at 8 PM and the key areas to keep an eye on are the Philly suburbs of Bucks and Chester Counties as well as the great city of Pittsburgh where big turnout for Clinton will make it extremely difficult to flip the state’s 20 Electoral College votes.
NORTH CAROLINA: Three million North Carolinians voted in early voting with Independents turning up in huge numbers while African Americans turnout fell by almost nine percent in early voting.This should give Trump a slight edge for the state’s 15 Electoral College votes going to the polls today and Clinton will need to hope the African American gap will be made up today. Both candidates touched down in the Tarheel State yesterday with Clinton closing out her campaign in Raleigh. Wake County, home to the research triangle, historically has been heavily Republican, but as NC’s second most populous county with its highly educated affluent demographics is the opposite of where Trump polls the best. Polls close in NC at 7:30.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Following James Comey’s letter to Congress the polls in NH went from a five point Clinton lead to a virtual tie. This is another state where there is no early voting so following the release of the new Comey letter, Granite Staters could have time to jump back on board. Trump has spent a lot of time in NH in the last week of the campaign trying to solidify his standing in a state that could be the decider in the election with only four Electoral College votes. One town to watch is Rochester that has been a bellwether for the state as whole for the last four elections. Polls close in NH at 8 PM.
OHIO: Trump has built a small lead in OH without the support of popular Governor or Senator. Both campaigns have spent a lot of time in the state that is viewed as the bellwether of the country. If Trump loses OH and its 18 Electoral College votes, then he won’t be able to win the election. Early voting in OH looks to favor Republicans and turnout has been lower in Democratic areas than it was in 2012. Clinton will need to win big in Cuyahoga County where early voting was down 35 percent in comparison to President Obama’s 2012 showing. Another County to watch is Mahoning which is a typical Democrat stronghold, but Trump’s message has resonated in a large white working class county. Polls close in the Buckeye State at 7:30.
MICHIGAN: A state that has been solidly Democrat since 1988 has been the center of the campaign for the past week and the final hours of campaign 2016 given signs of weakness in Clinton’s numbers. The Trump campaign needs to turn part of Clinton’s “blue wall” red in order to win and believes MI with is large working white population is his best bet. Clinton had an 11-point lead a month ago, but that is down to four points today. The big area to watch is Oakland County, which is the second most populous, and has trended Democratic for years. Trump will need to make this area competitive to have a chance at snatching the Great Lakes state’s 16 Electoral College votes. Polls will close at 9 PM.
COLORADO+NEVADA+ARIZONA: These final three states have one thing in common and that’s the impact Hispanic turnout will have on the outcome. In NV, Latinos propelled Democrats to record breaking early voting turnout giving them an early lead in ballots cast to 72,000 - in 2012 Democrats led by 71,000 votes in NV and Obama went on to win the state and it’s six Electoral College votes by seven points. If Latino turnout is high, CO is likely to be a victory for Clinton and even give AZ the potential to flip to the Democrats. Two counties to watch are Arapahoe and Jefferson counties in CO. These Denver suburbs vote together and were once Republican strongholds, but voted for Obama twice. If Trump can perform well here then he could potentially win the centennial state and its nine Electoral College votes.
While AZ is unlikely to decide the election, if Clinton is able to flip the state and its 11 Electoral College votes this year it will change the election landscape going forward. Additionally, if Clinton is able to notch early victories in some of the east coast battleground states, Republican turnout in these states could be impacted.
ELECTION EVE REMINDER: HEALTH POLICY POSITIONS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: Our Senior Healthcare Analyst Emily Evans gives us one final pre-election breakdown of each candidate's health policy. You can find the full analysis here.
DON’T FORGET TO VOTE
