The only legitimate right to govern is an express grant of power from the governed.
-William Henry Harrison
THESE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGIN’: Just a few short weeks ago, the L word was being uttered as the establishment media was pondering not if Clinton would win but by how much. With many polls showing a race tightening over the past week, Trump is back in the race with a narrow - and growing - path to victory as many states that were locks for Clinton are back in play. Two examples: VA, veep running mate Tim Kaine’s home state, was a strong lean to the Democratic nominee is now edging back into the toss up category. NV where Clinton had a two point lead just last week is now flipped and Trump now has taken a two point lead. With Trump reminding himself to stay on message in the final five days, Clinton and her surrogates know they need to rile up her base to reverse her downward trend heading into weekend and early next week.
BACK IN THE GAME: After taking a few week hiatus and with polls tightening over the past week, Reince Priebus and the RNC have now decided to jump back in the presidential race with a multi-million dollar ad buy to augment the sudden increase in ad spending by Trump Tower. All in, close to $20 million dollars will be spent on both attack ads against Clinton given the new post FBI dynamic as well as on a number of pro-Trump spots.
FREEDOM FIGHTERS: The Freedom Caucus stands to gain more clout following Election Day next week, but they officially began their plotting for the next Congress this week - and surprise - the top item on their agenda is Speaker Paul Ryan. While the FC does not have the numbers to elect one of its own to the speakership, it can hamper Ryan’s bid for another term. One FC litmus test for Ryan will be how he handles year-end spending issues with the Democrats when Congress returns right after the election and the FC has a history of opposing almost every budget deal to date. So we get a breather for less than one week before the infighting starts all over again?
SHOW ME THE SENATE: Who would have thought control of the Senate may come down to a state that Trump is almost certain to win. Trump leads in MO by over ten points but incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt is in a dead heat against Democratic challenger Jason Kander. Kander, an Afghanistan veteran, rose to prominence thanks to a now famous campaign ad in which he assembled an AR-15 rifle blindfolded. Kander is deftly combatting Trump’s lead at the top of the ticket and has repeatedly hit Blunt as Washington insider pointing to his family’s work in lobbying and is effectively playing into, well, this year’s Trump outsider narrative.
CENTRAL BANK BLOWUP? BUY GOLD: Central bankers around the globe have cut interest rates almost 700 times since Lehman Brothers’ collapse. That’s not a typo. Here’s the “Central Banker Playbook” Cut interest rates → Devalue the currency → Stocks up! It’s a monetary mirage. The Fed, ECB and BOJ have $12.4 trillion on their collective balance sheets. Again, not a typo. The global money supply is currently $100 trillion dollars. Meanwhile, total gold mined globally is just $7 trillion. We suggest you buy some. Gold is free from central bank tinkering and the principal beneficiary of any blowup in the central planning #BeliefSystem. As economic growth slows throughout the world, we expect central bankers to double down on their failed policies (think helicopter money). We’d buy more gold.
ELECTION 2016 POSES INCREASED POLITICAL RISK FOR PIPELINES & ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes about how energy infrastructure projects will be affected by each candidate. He believes Trump will be positive for energy generally, but Clinton may take a hard left on energy policies out of concern for 202 primary challenge. You can find the whole analysis here.
CMS FINALIZES MEDICARE CY 2017 HOSPITAL OUTPATIENT PAYMENT SYSTEM: Our Senior HealthCare Analyst Emily Evans writes about how site neutral payments for new outpatients departments goes into effect. You can find the full analysis here.
BAD NEWS FOR LMT: GOV'T INKS $6.1B CONTRACT FOR 57 F-35: Our Senior Defense Policy Analyst LtGen Emo Gardner says that the government has imposed a unilateral contract for 57 F35s worth $6.1B on LMT that likely jeopardizes planned future margins. You can read the full analysis here.
Congratulations to the World Champion Chicago Cubs. Amazing baseball last night - one for the record books. Big thanks to them and the worthy Cleveland Indians for providing us with a five-hour respite from election season madness.
