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Takeaway: The average U.S. economic cycle lasts 59 months before recession. We are 28 months past that.

Fed Forecast: Rainbows and Butterflies ... For Years To Come! - dudley cycles 2

REALITY: The U.S. economy is in its 87th month of economic expansion... an extremely long expansion by historical standards.

History is clear on this. Average U.S. economic cycle last 59 months before recession. We are now 28 months past that. 

That's why this new statement from New York Fed head Bill Dudley is up there as one of the more irresponsible statements (maybe not "the most irresponsible") we've read recently.

"I think this economic expansion can last a good while longer," Dudley. The Fed, he said, is aiming for a best-case scenario in which the economy grows at a "moderate rate over the next five to 10 years" while unemployment remains around 5 percent or a bit lower "and just have a very long-lived economic expansion."

 

**cringeworthy**

 

We invite and encourage Mr. Dudley to peruse some recent Hedgeye commentary.

  1. Slowing jobs growth = Slowing U.S. economy
  2. The Profit Peak Is In For S&P 500 Companies
  3. Worrisome updates from CEOs of multi-billion companies (here and here)
  4. 21 of 32 key economic indicators got worse heading into Fed's September meeting.

We wouldn't bet that economic reality ceases to exist ... just because the Fed says so.

Fed Forecast: Rainbows and Butterflies ... For Years To Come! - Fed forecast cartoon 11.13.2015