Debate Was Like Trench Warfare Which Benefits Clinton
Lincoln-Douglas this was not. In fact, the debate Sunday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was ugly, angry and soul-crushing. It was less a forum for undecided voters than a grudge match between two people who really, really don’t like each other. At the end of the day, however, this debate did little to change the trajectory of the campaign. This is still Clinton’s race to lose. And Trump refuses to do what he needs to win it.
This was a much more aggressive and disciplined Trump than we saw in the first debate. He went after Clinton incessantly. He interrupted her. He paced around her. He said she had “evil in her heart” and pledged to prosecute her if he is elected president. And, of course, even before the debate, he hosted a press conference with women who have accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault and/or harassment. The gloves, if they were ever on, came off. This may help Trump keep his restive base happy, but it does little else. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, found that concern about Trump’s “temperament” was the biggest concern that voters had about him. He did nothing to lessen those concerns.
While Trump did deliver a solid hit on Clinton’s years of talk and “no action” - he spent more time attacking her personally instead of making the case for why he’d do things better. This was all about her and very little for or about actual voters. We know that Trump has a very solid floor - his supporters are not going to leave him no matter what he says or does. But, his ceiling is his bigger problem. He needs to show he can grow his vote - with women, independents and college-educated white voters - not just hold what he already has. I didn’t see anything from Trump that was directed at/for those voters.
Moreover, while Trump may have done well enough to prevent more GOP defections next week, the fact that the GOP is fractured this close to Election Day is a big problem for Trump and for down ballot candidates as well.
Clinton’s job was to play prevent defense. She came into the debate ahead by four points in national polls according the the most recent Real Clear Politics (RCP) average. She also retains an edge in battleground state polling according to the RCP averages. She was on defense more than she was in the last debate. And, she did not get under Trump’s skin as easily and effectively as she did previously. She still has no good answer on emails. But, she also remained cool and calm and confident.
This debate was like trench warfare. There was lots of fire and explosions, but no real movement. Clinton can afford to hunker down and still win. Trump, however, needs to show some real movement.
