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Cartoon of the Day: The Great Debate

Cartoon of the Day: The Great Debate - Deflation v reflation cartoon 09.19.2016

 

In today's Early Look, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough took the Fed to task for it's use of the word "transitory" in describing anything that doesn't fit its narrative, namely deflation. He writes, "Why are crashing inflation expectations (Oil prices for example from $105/barrel) “transitory”, but bear market bounces not equally transient?"


Beware of Fed’s ‘Blunt Instrument To The Face’

In this excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question on monetary policy and the investing impact of a Fed rate hike.


7 Reasons Market Risk 'Significantly Exceeds' Reward

Takeaway: We think the "risk-reward" of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside.

7 Reasons Market Risk 'Significantly Exceeds' Reward - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

 

Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner listed the many reasons why we think the "risk-reward" of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside.

 

Here's a brief recap from a recent edition of The Macro Show

 

  1. You’ve got small business loans and credit quality deteriorating, an enormous part of the economy.
  2. You’ve got the rest of the lending complex beginning to tighten.
  3. You’ve got the Fed in a position in which it's not able to do much about it.
  4. You’ve got a broad swath of economic indicators getting worse.
  5. You’ve got market valuation up on a rope.
  6. You’ve got the duration of the labor cycle very extended.
  7. And then there's this curious case of significant decline in maternity rates taking hold across America.

 

As Steiner summarized:

 

"To me, it all paints a very fascinating picture of risk versus reward in the marketplace right now, where I think it's pretty plain that risk significantly exceeds what’s being priced into stocks and it's not that uncommon an occurence. In October 2007, it should have been pretty plain to many people that things were going to go from bad to worse when the market was at an all-time high. And so the fact that the market hit a very high level is not a defensible argument for why we shouldn’t be concerned about all of this deterioration. It's actually exactly the opposite."


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20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

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6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals

Editor’s Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner. To access our Financials team’s research ping sales@hedgeye.com.

 

6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals - red light

 

The trend of tepid risk readings broke last week with 6 of 13 indicators flashing short-term warning signals.

 

Most notably, the TED spread, a measure of counterparty risk in the financial system, spiked by 6 bps to 57. That is the highest reading since January 2012. Separately, the Shifon Index (China's TED Spread equivalent) has been quietly, but steadily creeping higher for the past month. Meanwhile, CDS widened globally, the high yield YTM shot up by +13 bps to 6.43%, and the price of Chinese steel dropped -1.5%.

 

6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals - ted spread 9 19


PREMIUM INSIGHT

Emerging Markets: 4 Countries To Buy & 3 To Sell

Emerging Markets: 4 Countries To Buy & 3 To Sell  - HETV macroshow thumb 9.19.2016

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discuss the emerging market countries they like and don’t like.


ELECTION UPDATE: CALL INVITE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT

Hedgeye Potomac is hosting a call with Charlie Cook - one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections, and founder of the Cook Political Report.

 

Cook will share his outlook on the presidential race, discuss the state of play for House and Senate elections, and give a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month.

 

The call will take place tomorrow, September 20th at 2:00 PM EST with prepared remarks from Cook followed by Q&A.

 

ABOUT CHARLIE COOK

 

Charlie Cook is the Editor and Publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine, where he writes a twice weekly column. Charlie is considered one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections. In 2010, Charlie was a co-recipient of the American Political Science Association's prestigious Carey McWilliams award to honor "a major journalistic contribution to our understanding of politics." In the spring semester of 2013, Charlie served as a Resident Fellow at the Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

 

Charlie founded the Cook Political Report in 1984 and became a columnist for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill, in 1986. In 1998 he moved his column to National Journal. Charlie has served as a political analyst or election night analyst for CBS, CNN and NBC News and has been a frequent political analyst for all three major broadcast news networks and has appeared on Meet the Press and This Week.

 

The New York Times has called Charlie “one of the best political handicappers in the nation" and has said the Cook Political Report is "a newsletter which both parties regard as authoritative." The late David Broder wrote in the Washington Post that Charlie was "perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races," while CBS News' Bob Schieffer called the Cook Political Report, "the bible of the political community."

 

CALL DETAILS

 

Toll Free:

Toll:

UK: 0

Confirmation Number: 13645449


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