One of the most valued and loyal friends of the United States in Latin America has been Colombia. Despite the "pink tide" of anti-free market populism that swept most of the region beginning in the late 90's -- including Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Argentina -- Colombia resisted the flood. Yet Bogota was bedeviled throughout this period, and for decades before, by a savage struggle against the "Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia" (FARC), a Marxist-inspired anti-government guerrilla group that, over time, dominated the lucrative drug trade throughout Colombia.
- Yet, after four years of negotiations between the FARC and the Colombian government, and after a 50-year struggle with the FARC that resulted in the deaths of over 200,000 Colombians, a landmark peace agreement was inked two weeks ago between Bogota and the FARC leadership.
- The deal is breathtaking in its scope. Modeled in part on the Truth and Reconciliation Commissions in South Africa that presaged the political legitimization of the African National Congress (ANC) and a political role for Nelson Mandela, the agreement calls for a cease fire between the FARC and the government (already in place), allows the FARC representation in Colombia's legislature, and requires demobilization of the FARC's military units.
- One problem with the deal? There is no "Nelson Mandela" in the FARC leadership! Further, despite the understandable jubilation of most Colombians at the announcement of the a cease fire, Bogota's political leadership is sharply divided on the merits of the final deal: current president Juan Manuel Santos obviously supports it, but his predecessor, Alvaro Uribe -- like Santos, widely respected in the U.S. -- is strongly opposed. A national referendum, tentatively set for October 2nd, will decide the deal's fate. Colombia's political and security future is clearly at a crossroads.
So is the Colombian economy and the country's business future. Like all countries in the hemisphere that rely on natural resource exports to fuel growth, Colombia has been hit by the collapse in prices; GDP growth that exceeded 6% only a few years ago is projected to be no more than 2.5% for this year. Yet even before the peace deal with the FARC was announced, economic projections for Colombia showed an uptick for 2017; should the Colombian electorate in the October referendum endorse the deal, investor confidence will be boosted, helping especially in fueling badly needed infrastructure spending in rural areas.
- U.S. support to Bogota through the multi-billion dollar "Plan Colombia" counter-narcotics initiative played a central role in setting the stage for the eventual peace deal. Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama have each sustained this 15-year initiative in what remains one of our few bipartisan foreign policy success stories.
Colombia's success story comes on top of what has been, over the last 18 months, a remarkable transformation in hemispheric politics. With key elections in Argentina and Peru that saw market-friendly presidents inaugurated in both countries, with the ouster of left-leaning Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, and with the imminent collapse of the "Bolivarian socialist" president in Venezuela, a "pink-tide" reversal is clearly underway.
- Together with this welcome change in the nearly two-decade-long Latin American love affair with populist, left-of-center governments, the achievement between the FARC and Bogota is extraordinarily significant. If the FARC deal is approved, it will not only give Colombia a chance to move beyond a half century nightmare of killings, kidnappings, and extortions, it will also represent a signal achievement of American foreign policy in sticking by a key regional ally, in a part of the world where close friends have been a rarity.
