prev

Is The Yellen Fed Truly "Data Dependent"?

Takeaway: To hike or not to hike, that is the question all Fed officials are pondering at the moment. Let's look at the data.

Is The Yellen Fed Truly "Data Dependent"? - Yellen data dependent cartoon 11.18.2015

 

"What's really changed, economically, since stocks crashed last time?" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier today. "Dovish (not hawkish) Fed." In short, the only thing keeping stocks up at this point is bad economic data and the perennial hope that Yellen will get dovish once again.

 

On that front and For those of you keeping score...

  • Q2 GDP: 1.1%
  • July Existing Home Sales (90% of Housing): -1.6%
  • GM and Ford Sales -5-8%

 

This is all clean cut rate hike "data," right?

 

It gets worse. Add another terrible economic data point to that list today with an ISM print of 49.4 in August. Quick quetsion: Is the Fed out to lunch with its hawkish outlook?

 

You bet.

 

Is The Yellen Fed Truly "Data Dependent"? - ism manufacturing

 

To hike or not to hike, that is the question all Fed officials are pondering at the moment.

 

You know where we stand on that.

 

However, With all this ugly data, one thing is certain...

 


The Best Case For Stocks & Bonds Is A Bad Jobs Print

Takeaway: Worse jobs print = No Rate Hike = Stocks ↑ = Bonds ↑

“Markets can handle 25 bps” (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016)– in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike)  - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data.

 

Here's a video with my take on "What Happens To Stocks If Friday’s Jobs Report Bombs?"

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities


GET THE HEDGEYE MARKET BRIEF FREE

Enter your email address to receive our newsletter of 5 trending market topics. VIEW SAMPLE

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, if you’re part of the 10%, you have to admit we’re killing it as at least 50-60% are getting killed by cost of living. The Top 10% of US Households (by wealth distribution) own 85% of US Financial Assets.

 

Since the next 25% own 3% and the next 50% only own 1%, who really cares about the Fed other than us?"

 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up - 09.01.16 EL Chart


Cartoon of the Day: Strikeout?

Cartoon of the Day: Strikeout? - Fed pitcher cartoon 08.31.2016

 

The Fed is threatening to hike rates into an economic slowdown.

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


Our Message On Friday’s Jobs Report: Get Out Your Crystal Ball!

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why the upcoming jobs report is a “binary event” with important ramifications.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next