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The Best Case For Stocks & Bonds Is A Bad Jobs Print

Takeaway: Worse jobs print = No Rate Hike = Stocks ↑ = Bonds ↑

“Markets can handle 25 bps” (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016)– in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike)  - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data.

 

Here's a video with my take on "What Happens To Stocks If Friday’s Jobs Report Bombs?"

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities


September 1, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.62 1.51 1.58
SPX
S&P 500
2,162 2,189 2,170
RUT
Russell 2000
1,227 1,249 1,239
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,180 5,260 5,213
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
35.03 37.85 36.79
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,212 1,239 1,226
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,342 16,991 16,887
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,406 10,699 10,592
VIX
Volatility Index
11.55 14.47 13.42
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.99 96.46 96.01
EURUSD
Euro
1.11 1.13 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
98.99 103.78 103.43
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
44.09 47.25 44.70
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.55 2.99 2.89
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,301 1,356 1,311
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.02 2.12 2.07
AAPL
Apple Inc.
105.21 110.00 106.10
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
752 779 769
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
64.81 67.78 67.50
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.90 36.11 35.89
COST
Costco Wholesale
157 165 162
CRM
salesforce.com.
74.60 79.62 79.42

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

495/500 SP500 companies have reported an aggregate (non-GAAP) y/y EPS decline of -4.1%...

Client Talking Points

UK

Doesn’t take much of a “growth scare” (1 data point) to get bond yields up – 10yr Gilt +6bps to 0.70% and GBP/USD +0.8% to the top-end of it’s immediate-term risk range on a UK PMI print of 53.3 for AUG vs. 48.2 (we'd fade the macro move).

Oil

Awful end to the month for pretty much everything commodities but both the CRB Index and WTI are signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold at 179 and $44.09, respectively. Good luck with your Fed Hike Powerball tickets tomorrow.

USA

“Markets can handle 25 bps” (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016)– in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike)  - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/31/16 43% 7% 8% 16% 20% 6%
9/1/16 42% 8% 8% 16% 20% 6%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/31/16 43% 21% 24% 48% 61% 18%
9/1/16 42% 24% 24% 48% 61% 18%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

On the other side of the USD expectation, Gold (GLD) lost -1.5% w/w. Again we still like UUP and GLD as a basket against other centrally-planned currency regimes elsewhere.

TLT

Long Bonds (TLT), which has been on Investing Ideas since August 4th, 2014, finished the week -0.25%. We continue to believe that growth is the main catalyst for the curve amidst all the central planning noise. Slower growth gets discounted in a flatter curve so even if rates are hiked into a late cycle slow-down, the yield curve pancakes (the long-end of the yield curve fall and the short-end goes up). 

UUP

Strength in the U.S. dollar, with renewed rate hike expectations back in the mix over the last few weeks, gave a good boost to U.S. Dollar (UUP) which finished +1.1% on the week. The bid-yield of December Federal funds futures has ticked 10 bps higher in August to 0.55% to close out the week.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up app.hedgeye.com/insights/53498… via @KeithMcCullough #Fed #Yellen pic.twitter.com/a9Y4GVArak

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Show me a guy who's afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time.”

–Lou Brock

STAT OF THE DAY

Mark Trumbo leads the MLB in HR's with 40.


The Macro Show with Keith McCullough Replay | September 1, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.

 

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, if you’re part of the 10%, you have to admit we’re killing it as at least 50-60% are getting killed by cost of living. The Top 10% of US Households (by wealth distribution) own 85% of US Financial Assets.

 

Since the next 25% own 3% and the next 50% only own 1%, who really cares about the Fed other than us?"

 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up - 09.01.16 EL Chart


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%
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