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Nonsense

Takeaway: The Fed nonsense is just starting to heat up.

Nonsense - Fed birdbrain cartoon 06.15.2015

 

There's a curious rhyme to Fed policy that's worth noting. Year-to-date, the Fed has pivoted from...

 

  1. Hawkish, December
  2. Dovish, March
  3. Hawkish, May
  4. Dovish, June
  5. Hawkish, July

 

Even more interesting is the effervescent hopes and dreams of most regional Fed governors about raising interest rates. That manifests most foolishly in San Francisco Fed head John Williams who forsaw as many as five rate hikes in 2016.

 

Nonsense - costanza

It doesn't end there...

 

Here's the latest nonsense from Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan which reaffirms our #LowerForLonger call on interest rates:

 

8/25/16: Dallas Fed head Kaplan sees rate hike in the "not too distant future."

4/16/16Dallas Fed head Kaplan sees rate hike in the "not too distant future."

 

Nonsense - fed kaplan

Unfortunately...

 

Rather than studying the basic history of economic cycles, Fed officials are digging in their heels and clenching onto their dogmatic economic ideas. Central bankers from all over the world are dogpiling into Jackson Hole for this week's Fed-sponsored economic symposium. The theme of the meeting is "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks For The Future."

 

In other words, if you're hoping the central planning will stop, don't hold your breath.


Poll of the Day: Where Would You LEAST Like To Wake Up & Find Yourself Today?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.


Another Buying Opportunity...

Takeaway: Own Long Bonds, Gold and Platinum? Get long #GrowthSlowing.

There have been plenty “buying opportunities” (why is it that they never call them that in the Long Bond or Gold?) this year. Gold was one of them yesterday as we tapped the low-end of my immediate-term risk range = $1319-1365.

 

Anything that’s not hawkish from Janet should be bearish for Bond Yields; bullish for Gold and Platinum. (Note: Gold and Platinum are up 25% and 22% year-to-date respectively.)

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 

 

Want more? Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video below explain why investors should be long Gold.

 


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

August 25, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.59 1.49 1.56
SPX
S&P 500
2,168 2,190 2,175
RUT
Russell 2000
1,221 1,249 1,237
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,170 5,265 5,217
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
34.65 37.90 37.10
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,211 1,246 1,221
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,302 16,908 16,597
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,407 10,790 10,622
VIX
Volatility Index
11.15 14.33 13.45
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.80 96.00 94.74
EURUSD
Euro
1.10 1.13 1.13
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.11 102.45 100.47
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
43.09 49.07 46.77
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.50 2.88 2.84
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,319 1,362 1,329
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.07 2.17 2.08
AAPL
Apple Inc.
107.12 109.99 108.03
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
749 775 757
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
63.26 66.19 65.95
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.11 35.68 35.15
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Tech Corp.
70.60 76.70 75.89
HPQ
Hewlett-Packard Co.
13.45 14.59 14.40


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


INVITE | P Best Idea Long | Call TODAY at 1pm EDT

Takeaway: We will host a conference call TODAY at 1pm EDT to present P as a new Best Idea Long. Dialing Instructions below.

INVITE | P Best Idea Long | Call TODAY at 1pm EDT - P   Best Idea Long Image

KEY POINTS OF DISCUSSION

  1. AD MODEL IS SO POORLY MONETIZED THAT: P’s ad-supported model hasn't produce any real operating leverage/cash flow to date, and is now more expensive to run post Web IV.  P’s 2Q results reinforce our long-standing view that revenue growth is tied to its salesforce growth, meaning the ad model may never get off the ground. That said...
  2. VERY LITTLE SUB CONVERSION GOES A LONG WAY: The sub model is far more lucrative from both a revenue and margin perspective.  The stark difference b/w the two models means the expanded sub launch is a massive growth opportunity, particularly in the initial years, maybe more depending on how aggressively P commits to it.
  3. P = CALL OPTION: Basically a hedged bet: mgmt either executes on its sub expansion (new deals + revenue) or is forced to entertain acquisition offers if can’t do so, which should buoy the stock at a minimum.  The former offers more upside, but the stock should end up much higher either way by this time next year, if not sooner.

 

 

Participating Dialing Instructions

Toll Free:

Toll:

UK: 0

Confirmation Number: 13643964

Subscriber: CLICK HERE to access event details.


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities 8 25


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