Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.
"... Looking a little deeper into how the latest all-time high in SPY has become:
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Takeaway: In our view it is still too soon for any change in OPEC production policy.
The OPEC rumor mill is in hyperdrive with today's Reuters report citing sources that say Iran is "sending positive signals" on a production freeze. Like a marionette, the market follows.
Iran may actually attend this informal OPEC meeting but only because it will be held on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF) and attended by potential customers for its crude.
But this freeze sequel ends the same as last April's attempt - no agreement & no freeze.
This is just public relations so Iran doesn't look like the bad guy after the Saudis made comments earlier this month about cooperating with other OPEC members "if necessary."
In our view it is still too soon for any change in OPEC production policy. Saudi Arabia is more nervous about oil at $50 than $40 because they know it keeps US shale alive. The Saudis only care about declining US production and need to see more of it.
Iran is just eight months into ramping up exports and regaining market share. So they simply can't agree to any limits on production now. Arguments that Iranian production is plateauing will fall on deaf ears in Tehran.
Throw in other recent news reports that Iran plotted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Iraq -- and we don't have the makings of a productive meeting in September.
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Editor's Note: Here's a recent interview where McMonigle explains why Saudi Arabia and Iran will once again dash OPEC oil production “freeze” discussions.
Takeaway: Republicans On The Rise; Fundraising Frenzy; Hillary's Hope For Change
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
“History and experience tell us that moral progress comes not in comfortable and complacent times, but out of trial and confusion.”
-Gerald R. Ford
With Hillary Clinton’s growing lead and clearer path forward, the Clinton camp is beginning to refine policy plans - and Republicans are already expressing aversion to them. Though rumors are swirling that Clinton, Speaker Paul Ryan and wannabe Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are open-minded to a package to build on infrastructure spending and reform corporate taxes, nothing is set in stone. Some Republicans say they could go along with it, while others keep their distance. But remember - even if Clinton wins the White House, and the Senate turns Democrat, the House is likely to stay in Republican hands, and is likely to become more conservative.
Trump has watched his poll standings in battleground states plummet in the past few weeks, but he can point to at least one glimmer of hope for a possible turnaround – Republicans are gaining ground in voter registration in FL, PA, NC, and IA. Sure, Clinton is ahead by an average of six points nationally, and Trump is losing ground with millennials, women, and minorities, but registration increases in eastern and midwestern battleground states are welcome news for Trump, who is coming off his first controversy-free week since the convention. The RNC has done a lot of the legwork on voter registration, and they’re stepping in to fill other voids within the Trump orbit as he’s almost completely ignored a ground operation instead relying on earned media and, of course, his rowdy rallies to win over supporters.
Last month, Trump looked to be even with Clinton’s fundraising efforts (mostly), but August isn’t shaping up to be as positive. To make matters worse, of the cash that was raised, he’s barely spent any of it, forcing the RNC to step up and step in (see above). The lack of staff, dearth of advertising, and frugal spending is worrisome for the RNC and can only get better. To add to that, Clinton is a campaigning machine – she’s recently reserved over $80 million in advertising for the fall season, while Trump has fallen short on future ad buys. Trump and his camp should be deeply concerned about the inequity and needs to prioritize outreach to pro-Trump groups, because without additional resources, Trump’s chances in November will not improve.
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