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Oil/Iran: Sell The "News"!

Takeaway: In our view it is still too soon for any change in OPEC production policy.

The OPEC rumor mill is in hyperdrive with today's Reuters report citing sources that say Iran is "sending positive signals" on a production freeze. Like a marionette, the market follows.

 

Iran may actually attend this informal OPEC meeting but only because it will be held on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF) and attended by potential customers for its crude.

 

But this freeze sequel ends the same as last April's attempt - no agreement & no freeze.

 

This is just public relations so Iran doesn't look like the bad guy after the Saudis made comments earlier this month about cooperating with other OPEC members "if necessary."

 

In our view it is still too soon for any change in OPEC production policy. Saudi Arabia is more nervous about oil at $50 than $40 because they know it keeps US shale alive. The Saudis only care about declining US production and need to see more of it.

 

Oil/Iran: Sell The "News"! - OPEC cartoon 04.24.2015

 

Iran is just eight months into ramping up exports and regaining market share. So they simply can't agree to any limits on production now. Arguments that Iranian production is plateauing will fall on deaf ears in Tehran.

 

Throw in other recent news reports that Iran plotted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Iraq -- and we don't have the makings of a productive meeting in September.

 

*  *  *  * 

 

Editor's Note: Here's a recent interview where McMonigle explains why Saudi Arabia and Iran will once again dash OPEC oil production “freeze” discussions.

 


Capital Brief: Hillary's Hopes & Trump's Tribulations

Takeaway: Republicans On The Rise; Fundraising Frenzy; Hillary's Hope For Change

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Hillary's Hopes & Trump's Tribulations - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“History and experience tell us that moral progress comes not in comfortable and complacent times, but out of trial and confusion.”

-Gerald R. Ford

HILLARY’S HOPE FOR CHANGE

With Hillary Clinton’s growing lead and clearer path forward, the Clinton camp is beginning to refine policy plans - and Republicans are already expressing aversion to them. Though rumors are swirling that Clinton, Speaker Paul Ryan and wannabe Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are open-minded to a package to build on infrastructure spending and reform corporate taxes, nothing is set in stone. Some Republicans say they could go along with it, while others keep their distance. But remember - even if Clinton wins the White House, and the Senate turns Democrat, the House is likely to stay in Republican hands, and is likely to become more conservative.

REPUBLICANS ON THE RISE

Trump has watched his poll standings in battleground states plummet in the past few weeks, but he can point to at least one glimmer of hope for a possible turnaround – Republicans are gaining ground in voter registration in FL, PA, NC, and IA. Sure, Clinton is ahead by an average of six points nationally, and Trump is losing ground with millennials, women, and minorities, but registration increases in eastern and midwestern battleground states are welcome news for Trump, who is coming off his first controversy-free week since the convention. The RNC has done a lot of the legwork on voter registration, and they’re stepping in to fill other voids within the Trump orbit as he’s almost completely ignored a ground operation instead relying on earned media and, of course, his rowdy rallies to win over supporters.

FUNDRAISING FRENZY

Last month, Trump looked to be even with Clinton’s fundraising efforts (mostly), but August isn’t shaping up to be as positive. To make matters worse, of the cash that was raised, he’s barely spent any of it, forcing the RNC to step up and step in (see above). The lack of staff, dearth of advertising, and frugal spending is worrisome for the RNC and can only get better. To add to that, Clinton is a campaigning machine – she’s recently reserved over $80 million in advertising for the fall season, while Trump has fallen short on future ad buys. Trump and his camp should be deeply concerned about the inequity and needs to prioritize outreach to pro-Trump groups, because without additional resources, Trump’s chances in November will not improve.


NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost

Takeaway: NHS marked a new cycle high in July. The mean reversion upside in both the New and Existing Markets is now rearview.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume.

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - Compendium 082316

 

Today’s Focus: New Home Sales for July 

New Home Sales rose +12.4% MoM in July to +654K, marking the fastest pace of sequential growth in over two years and a new cycle high in total sales.  On a year-over-year basis, NHS growth accelerated to a 42-month high at +31.3% YoY.

 

Some notable context:  

 

Comps:  2Q/3Q comp dynamics are favorable so the reported strength in year-over-year growth in New Home Sales hasn’t been particularly surprising.  The same favorable dynamics characterize the next few months as well so reported RoC should remain reasonably solid.

 

Support Trifecta: In addition to the broadly conducive low-rate environment a couple primary factors have supported relative activity in the New Home market. Until July, New Home Sales activity still carried some mean reversion asymmetry with double-digit upside to the longer-run average and asymmetric upside to average peak levels of activity.  This setup stood in contrast to that in the existing market where activity has already full mean reverted.  Additionally,  the price spread between new and existing homes has begun to compress in recent months as growth in new home inventory has been improving roughly in line with sales and builders have progressively focused more on entry level supply.  We’ll get the EHS sales & price data tomorrow but it should reflect further compression in the median price spread.

 

Asymmetry Lost:  The negative rejoinder to the point above is that July gain brings NHS back to its LT historical average and collapses the former asymmetry (see 1st chart below).  Housing cycles do tend to be long and autocorrelated – playing out fully in both directions – but the easy, mean reversion upside is now rearview.  The existing-to-new home sales ratio also breached its long-term average to the downside for the first time in the expansion in July as relative strength in the new market over the last  couple quarters has driven a rising share of total transaction volume (2nd chart below).

 

KISS Principles & Low Vol Narratives:  As we highlighted last month, the simple reality is that, absent a regulatory or geopolitical shock or other outsized externality, labor will remain the primary demand lynchpin and so long as the employment recovery remains intact, we’re likely to see further trudging improvement in new construction sales & starts.  Of course, at the all-time high in equities and with VIX back to sub-12 and complacency in crescendo the ‘long-term recovery/upside’ narrative is always easier to pitch.  

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS LT cycle context

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS to EHS price spread

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS Units   YoY TTM

 

<chart5>

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS by Region

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS by Price Tier

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS Mean   Median Price

 

NHS | New High Gained, Asymmetry Lost  - NHS Inventory

 

 

About New Home Sales:

Each month the Census Department releases the New Home Sales report, which measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold in the month. The difference between the New Home Sales report and the Starts and Permits report is that New Home Sales only includes single family spec homes built and sold by builders, and does not include condos, apartments, or owner-built units. This is why New Home Sales typically run at roughly half the rate of Starts.

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


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Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet

Editor's Note: Below is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor research note written by Dr. Daniel Thornton. During his 33-year career at the St. Louis Fed, Thornton served as vice president and economic advisor. He currently runs D.L. Thornton Economics, an economic research consultancy. 

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - Fed cartoon 12.21.2015

 

On the op ed. page of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ, August 11), John Cochrane suggested that “America’s foremosteconomic problem is sclerotic growth,” saying that “if the economy continues to expand at only a 1% or 2% a year, instead of the historical 3% to 4%, then current economic and political problems will become crises.” He went on to say why Clinton’s economic programs for stimulating economic growth wouldn’t work and suggested how growth could be spurred. This essay is the first of two motivated by Cochrane’s opinion piece. This essay addresses the question of whether 3% to 4% economic growth is feasible. The second essay will consider whether Clinton’s or Cochrane’s proposals will succeed in increasing economic growth.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton1 8 23

 

Figure 1 shows the annual growth rate of real GDP quarterly from 1948 Q1 to 2016 Q2. The figure suggests that economic growth has been trending down over the entire period. The peaks in output growth have tended to decline over time while the troughs tend to be more constant. The figure shows two nearly identical trend lines: The dashed line is estimated using data from 1948 Q1 to 1994 Q4 and extrapolated to 2016 Q2. The solid blueline is estimated using all of the data. The implication: If the dashed line represents the trend in output through 1994 Q4 and growth remained on trend, which it appears it has, then economic growth is back to trend.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton2 8 23

 

The conclusion that output growth has trended down is supported by Figure 2, which I used in Slow Growth. Figure 2 shows a 6-year moving average of output growth and a trend line estimated using data through 1994 Q4 (the data are plotting on the last observation in the moving average). Consistent with Figure 1, Figure 2 suggests that output growth trended down through the mid-1990s. In this case, however, output growth has not returned to its 6-year average trend rate.

 

Figures 1 & 2 may be deceptive. For example, Figure 3, which shows a 10-year moving average growth rate of output, suggests a very different picture; one that tends to support Cochrane’s suggestion that the economy could return to 3% to 4% growth. Specifically, it suggests that output grew at about a 4% rate from 1948 Q1 until about mid-1973, then declined 1 percentage point, permanently and rapidly, i.e., in about a decade. Long-term output growth then remained in a range of 3% to 3.5% until early 2006, when it declined rapidly with the onset of the 2007-2009 recession and has remained low since.

 

Rather than trending down as Figures 1 & 2 suggest, Figure 3 suggests that output growth fell quickly to a new long-run level. Hence, it might be reasonable to expect that output growth could once again return to something in the 3% or higher range. Of course, there are a number of unanswered questions: Is the decline after 2006 temporary or permanent? If it’s temporary, why has growth remained so slow more than seven years after the recession? If it’s permanent, what caused it? Furthermore, what caused the apparent permanent decline following the 1973-1975 recession?

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton3 8 23

 

But as I noted previously, moving averages can be deceiving. Figure 4 shows a 20-year moving average of output growth over the 1948-2016 period and a trend line based on the moving average data through 1994 Q4. The figure indicates that output growth declined steadily through 1994 Q4 from about 4.3% to about 3%. The figure indicates a steady decline rather than a precipitous drop. However, output growth begins to rise again inthe mid-1990s to a peak of 3.5% before declining rapidly in the wake of the 2007-2009 recession. 20-year average output growth remains significantly above the trend rate of 2% in 2016 Q2 (2% is also the trend growth rate for 2016 Q2 in Figure 1). Figure 4 suggests output growth declined steadily until the mid-1990s when something happened that pushed output growth significantly above trend and keep it there until the recession.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton4 8 23

 

It is important to note that this conclusion is consistent with the behavior of output over that period. Figure 5 shows the real GDP and the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) estimate of potential along with aquadratic trend-line estimate of potential based on real GDP over the period 1949 Q1 through 1994 Q4 (I used this figure previously, Failure, Slow Growth, and Normalize).

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton5 8 23

 

As with Figure 4, Figure 5 suggests the economic growth was unusual from the mid-1990s to the onset of the 2007-2009 recession. Furthermore, as is the case with Figure 1, which indicates that output growth returned to trend when the recession ended, Figure 4 suggests that output returned to the trend when the recession ended.

 

What can account for the high level and growth rate of output during the 1995-2007 period? As I have argued, Failure, a reasonable explanation for the uncharacteristic rise in output in Figure 5 (and the uncharacteristic rise in output growth in Figure 4) is that it was caused by a confluence of several events: Advances in technology and technological innovations, the launching of the World Wide Web (1991), the widespread use of securitization and other financial innovations, the growth of finance generally, making home ownership a national priority, a marked decline in lending standards (especially for residential real estate lending), and lax oversight of the mortgage market and other financial markets. The last three were responsible for a massive over production of residential homes and supporting infrastructure.

 

This explanation is supported by the FACT that the period was characterized by two price bubbles: The dot com bubble drove the NASDAQ and other equity prices indexes to new heights only to burst in 2000 — the NASDAQ peaked in February 2000. The result was the 2001 recession, which was mild and short. The house price bubble drove home prices to unsustainable heights and peaked in late 2006. The result was the 2007-2009 recession and its aftermath; TARP, a massive increase in the federal debt, unconventional monetary policies (QE, forward guidance, maturity extension) and, in Europe and elsewhere, negative interest rate policies.

 

Did output growth fall quickly to a new permanent level after the 1973-75 recession as suggested by Figure 3, or trend down from 1948 through the mid-1990s as Figures 1, 2, and 4 suggest? It is difficult to know for sure, but the figures suggest and it seems more reasonable that it trended down rather than fell quickly. Indeed, it is difficult to think of a reasonable explanation for a rapid and permanent fall in output growth. The oil-price crisis is the most obvious candidate, but by the mid-1980s the real price of oil was significantly below its pre-oilprice-crisis level. Furthermore, firms make adjustments to such changes so it is hard to see how such a change could have a large permanent effect on output growth.

 

Also, as I noted in Normalize, output is determined by the quantities of capital and labor for a given level of technology. Capital is very difficult to measure, but we have reasonably good measures of labor. If the growth rate of output trended down, it is reasonable to expect that employment growth also trended down. Figure 6 shows the 20-year moving average of total non-farm payroll employment since 1948Q1.

 

The figure shows that employment growth has trended down steadily since the late 1960s and then fell swiftly after the 2001 recession (the 10-year moving average looks very similar). The marked decline in employment growth after the 2001 recession was, in part, due to an historically unprecedented decline in the labor force participation rate from 67.1% in February 2001 to 62.4% on September 2015, see Good Idea?. Hence, downward trend in output growth is generally consistent with the downward trend in employment growth. Conclusion: Output growth has been declining over time.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton6 8 23

 

Why has output growth trended down? I don’t know. But I strongly suspect there is no single cause. Here are some possible causes. First, the economy has been transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy during the entire post-war period; manufacturing currently accounts for only about 12% of GDP. While the declining trend in manufacturing does not necessarily mean a decline in output growth, it is not unreasonable to believe that this transition was accompanied by downward trend in productivity and, hence, economic growth.

 

Productivity growth is difficult to measure. But, one commonly used measure is the growth rate of output per hour, shown in Figure 7. Consistent with the previous analysis, the figure shows that, with the exception of the brief period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s (Alan Greenspan was one of the first to recognize that productivity had been increasing), productive growth trended down over the period and is currently at trend.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Thornton: The Most Important Piece I've Written Yet - thornton7 8 23

 

This analysis strongly suggests that output growth has been falling over time but increased significantly above trend during the period from the mid-1990s to the bursting of the house price bubble in late 2006. This period was characterized by unusual events and a dramatic, albeit temporary, rise in productivity. The analysis also suggests that both output and output growth have returned to something close to trend. Indeed, it appears that this essentially happened when the recession ended in June 2009.

 

There are a number of important implications of this analysis. First and foremost, the analysis implies that it is extremely unlikely that output growth will return to the 3% to 4% rate that Cochrane and many policymakers believe reflects the economy’s potential. The economy’s potential for long-run growth would seem to be something in the neighborhood of 2% to perhaps 2.5%.

 

Second, the analysis suggests that a higher level of long-run output growth can be achieved only if the factors that have caused output growth to fall persistently are reversed. But this can only happen if these factors are correctly identified. It is impossible to take the corrective steps needed to reverse the downward growth tend if the causal factors are unknown. Moreover, it seems likely that these factors are deeply structural, so significant structural changes will need to be made.

 

Third, the implication that output and output growth have returned close to trend when the recession ended means that the excessive actions taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in early 2009 and thereafter were unnecessary and, by implication, counterproductive. The analysis strongly reinforces my argument, Normalize, that the FOMC needs to move quickly to normalize its balance sheet, and my argument that the FOMC should never have engaged in QE, What It Should Have Done.

 

Moreover, slow growth is not a reason to continue the FOMC’s low interest rate policy as Bullard suggests. Rather, it is a reason to move as quickly as possible to return banks’ holdings of excess reserves to their pre-September 2008, i.e., to a level that will enable the FOMC’s to affect the funds rate without paying interest on excess reserves. Moreover, the FOMC needs to abandon its low interest rate policy, which is doing more damage than it is good, see Insanity and Unintended.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Having Its Worst Year Ever

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Having Its Worst Year Ever - dollar pic

This is a complimentary research note originally published August 18, 2016 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.


Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity

Takeaway: As US economic data rolls off its cycle peak, it's worth pondering whether the Fed can smooth economic gravity. Spoiler alert! It can't.

Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity - The Cycle cartoon 03.04.2016

86 months...

 

That's the current length of this U.S. economic expansion. (The chart below is from our 99-page Q3 2016 Macro Themes deck.)

 

Quick question: Are you buying all-time highs in U.S. equities as our economy marches on into the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history?

 

Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity - history of cycles 

After pondering that question for a bit...

 

Watch the following video in which Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough lays out the timeline of our current economic cycle showing the peaks in corporate profits, employment growth, consumer confidence, equity markets and M&A.

 

Still bullish?


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