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Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity

Takeaway: As US economic data rolls off its cycle peak, it's worth pondering whether the Fed can smooth economic gravity. Spoiler alert! It can't.

Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity - The Cycle cartoon 03.04.2016

86 months...

 

That's the current length of this U.S. economic expansion. (The chart below is from our 99-page Q3 2016 Macro Themes deck.)

 

Quick question: Are you buying all-time highs in U.S. equities as our economy marches on into the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history?

 

Still Bullish? All-Time Highs, Mapping The Cycle & Fed Bending Economic Gravity - history of cycles 

After pondering that question for a bit...

 

Watch the following video in which Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough lays out the timeline of our current economic cycle showing the peaks in corporate profits, employment growth, consumer confidence, equity markets and M&A.

 

Still bullish?


Poll of the Day: An Intoxicated Monkey Takes On Janet Yellen & Jose Canseco

Takeaway: Who will you choose? An intoxicated monkey versus Steve Liesman, Mark Zandi, Janet Yellen & Jose Canseco.


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 8 23


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This Country Makes Our Global Equity Long List

Takeaway: A new addition to our (very short) list of countries added to the Global Equity long side: Taiwan.

Yep. Long Taiwan (TAIEX Index or EWT). We added that to our Global Equity LONG list while I was away last week. Standard Hedgeye GIP Model process reasoning as Taiwan moves into what we call Quad 1 (or 2) in the back half of 2016. Not many countries are…

 

Here's the brief breakdown of Taiwan, as it looks in our GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) model via Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale: 

 

  • Growth: generally trending higher across the preponderance of key high-frequency data
  • Inflation: generally trending higher across the preponderance of key high-frequency data
  • Policy: getting easier at the margins

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Productivity At Generational Lows? Yup

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... The productivity point is one that one of the world’s largest asset managers made to us in recent meetings in California. The PM asked whether all this “Fed Watching” was distracting companies from investing in real things as opposed to the next frontier of rumors…

 

Even if you go Ex-Energy, Ex-GAAP-Earnings, Ex-GDP with your narrative that everything ZIRP, NIRP, TWIRP is good, you’ll still have a very hard time convincing a rational human being who isn’t bought and paid for by the system that US Productivity at generational lows is…"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Productivity At Generational Lows? Yup - 08.23.16 chart


Cartoon of the Day: The Fed Game

Cartoon of the Day: The Fed Game - Fed cartoon 08.22.2016

 

Year-to-date Fed policy:

 

Hawkish DEC

Dovish MAR

Hawkish MAY

Dovish JUNE

Hawkish JULY

 

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