The Jackson Hole Jawbone: A Good Spot To Be Buying Long Bonds

Takeaway: The world will be reminded of reality on Friday when US GDP comes in at 1%.

The Jackson Hole Jawbone: A Good Spot To Be Buying Long Bonds - Fed bunny cartoon 08.19.2016

 

In case you missed It...

 

BREAKING: Fed’s Fischer Signals Close To Targets On Jobs and Inflation (ex-GDP)

 

Yeah. Definitely. As a central-planning smoother of the US economy, you definitely have to back out 1% GDP if you’re going to proclaim to have nailed it. Reminder: if they actually use their “target” (+2% as the Deflator) real GDP will fall closer to 0% than rise to +2-3%.

 

But have no fear, the latest Fed forecast is here! Fischer “expects GDP to accelerate in the next few quarters”… which is almost mathematically impossible if inflation continues to rise (in rate of change terms) and real consumption slows from its cycle peak.

 

Good luck with that!

 

That's why this is a good spot to be buying bonds (and stocks that look like bonds) ahead of Jackson Hole, as the world will be reminded of the 1% USA GDP reality on Friday (GDP report). The risk range on the 10-year US Treasury is 1.48-1.61%.

 

The Jackson Hole Jawbone: A Good Spot To Be Buying Long Bonds - GDP cartoon 02.29.2016

 

*Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.