Capital Brief | Election 2016: Fasten Your Seat Belts People

Takeaway: Mail Call; Scorched Earth Policy; Fish Or Cut Bait

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Capital Brief | Election 2016: Fasten Your Seat Belts People - JT   Potomac under 1 mb


Inboxes on Capitol Hill are full of unread Clinton emails having received the Clinton-FBI interview notes. The Republican caucus is now sifting through pages of detailed summaries, inspecting every nook and cranny for a smoking gun. You could see this coming from a mile away - it’s an election year and Republicans are slipping and have little to show on the accomplishment front for the past seven months. No new findings are expected, but the House Judiciary Committee plans to press the FBI in next month on allegations that Clinton committed perjury. As we’ve seen in the past, Republicans do have a tendency to overextend, and while it truly does deserve a vetting, let’s hope it doesn’t supplant the duties of Congress (pass a budget).


Freshly-minted Campaign Chair Steve Bannon’s mission is almost perfectly aligned with Trump’s – he’s a rabid fighter, enraged by Washington and Wall Street insiders, the Republican establishment and the Clintons. Known as a devil-may-care conservative, Bannon’s populist and nationalist sympathies reflect his longstanding disgust with both major political parties, which perfectly outlines his overall objective - disrupt the narrative. Bannon has been floating around the campaign for a while now, and is expected to be an expansion of Trump’s mind and values. With the Republican party also in his crosshairs, the Trump campaign may widen the gap between themselves and the party, and run their campaign however they may choose.


Usually a campaign shakeup this late in the game shows a struggling candidate righting the ship, but not here - more Trump is expected, and the move is irking Republicans. A letter, signed by more than 120 Republicans, warned the RNC that Trump is a threat to House and Senate seats, and the RNC should refocus resources to down-ballot races instead. The RNC is standing by Trump…for now, and won't make a decision until the fall. Not wasting any time, Republican PACs are investing heavily in down ticket races, while ignoring the presidential campaign. With the final leg of the election kicking off after Labor Day weekend, the RNC will need to make a final decision – keep him or toss him back in the water. Either way, the party is likely to feel the repercussions for cycles to come.

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more