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CHART OF THE DAY: Global Bond Yields Crashing ... Weird, Eh?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 

 

"... I hate to remind non-Global Macro investors on this, but for posterity I will this morning:

  1. European Bond Yields have crashed alongside GDP growth expectations – and European stocks have too
  2. Japanese Bond Yields have crashed alongside GDP growth expectations – and Japanese stocks have too

Weird, eh?"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Global Bond Yields Crashing ... Weird, Eh?  - 08.17.16 EL Chart


Lone Rider

“I have been a lone rider so often for so long that I’m not even bothered by it anymore.”

-Benoit Mandelbrot

 

That’s a great quote from one of the greatest books I’ve ever read on risk management, The (Mis)Behavior of MarketsA Fractal View of Financial Turbulence, by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard Hudson.

 

While sometimes I wish I could be harder core and say I’ve been a lone rider, I really can’t. The last 8 years of my career has really been a story of collaboration. Since 2008, without my teammates and clients pushing our every assumption I think I’d be as mediocre as many “macro” hedge fund returns and consensus growth forecasts have been.

 

As a firm, it’s never bothered us to be the lone rider. Instead of trying to be validated by an establishment of academics, strategists, and economists, we’ve had a lot more fun beating down their Old Wall. There’s a passion and perseverance to this. God willing, I have it in me to help my team carry on for years to come.

 

Lone Rider - 10 yr yield cartoon 08.10.2016

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Yeah, I get a little reminiscent at this time of the year. I get to sleep in for a few weeks (until 5-6AM which is huge!), write a few less Early Looks (as the sun is rising over Lake Superior – love that), and spend time with my family and friends.

 

Two weeks of this ends on Sunday. And I’ll be ready to crank back into top-gear for the final run of the season.

 

In some ways, this time of the year reminds me of the summer of 2007. That was a time when it was as clear as it is today that both the economic and profit cycles were slowing… but “stocks” wouldn’t go down.

 

I, being the inexperienced macro moron back then, was “too early” shorting US Equities from AUG-OCT … and I got fired on November 2nd, 2007 for being down less than 4%. The SP500 was down over 6% that month. And the rest is history.

 

This summer is different in that the latest “bear case” isn’t that #GrowthSlowing continues, equity multiples compress, and stocks crash (again).

 

No, no, no.

 

This time the bears are still the same bears you could have dialed up a year ago. The “valuation” bears on both bonds and their Safe-Yield proxies. These are the bears that are still clinging to their caves hoping for bond yields to “break-out.”

 

But how, precisely, do bond yields break-out if both US and Global Growth continues to slow?

 

Send me an email. I’d love to print a differentiated view on this macro matter. For now, everything I get sent on the topic is pretty much the same thing. “It’s crowded, expensive, unsustainable….”

 

Sounds like the bear case on stocks too, doesn’t it?

 

  1. “Stocks can’t make all-time highs every other day”… (they did in 2007, until OCT)
  2. “Stocks are super expensive, especially on GAAP earnings” … (true at all 3 bubble highs, 2000, 2007, 2016)
  3. “Everyone is long” … (true, from a net positioning perspective, in both stocks and bonds right now)

 

If the bond bears are wrong, can the perma US Equity bulls be wrong?

 

A) Sure, anything can happen

B) If Europe and Japan are leading indicators, yes

 

I hate to remind non-Global Macro investors on this, but for posterity I will this morning:

 

  1. European Bond Yields have crashed alongside GDP growth expectations – and European stocks have too
  2. Japanese Bond Yields have crashed alongside GDP growth expectations – and Japanese stocks have too

 

Weird, eh?

 

Not really. And this is the punch-line on why the USA is different (for now). When US GDP was tracking sub-1% in Q1, plenty of crashing in equity prices was happening into the FEB 2016 lows. Bond yields were crashing too.

 

When everything “bottomed” (allegedly in Q2) and GDP was barely > 1%, stocks and bonds ramped to all-time highs in sync. I called this American Goldilocks in an Early Look note last week.

 

But what happens if/when US GDP falls back below 1% again? What happens if Oil can’t recapture $51-52? What happens to the US #ProfitRecession in Q3 and Q4 and into 2017? How about credit spreads? Long-term Yields? Unicorns? Helicopters?

 

Oh boy.

 

Instead of buying bad companies like Hain Celestial (HAIN) “because they’re gonna be bought, bro” (before they have to report their real numbers) prospective buyers of “everyone can buy everyone” might actually do some accounting due-diligence…

 

Lord knows that those PE and Hedge funds who levered up long at this stage of the cycle in 2007 didn’t. In many ways, I guess they thought they were the smartest lone riders in the room back then too.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.47-1.61%

SPX 2165-2195

NASDAQ 5130-5269

Nikkei 16033-17105

VIX 11.02-14.65
USD 94.51-96.53
Oil (WTI) 40.08-46.92

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Lone Rider - 08.17.16 EL Chart


463 of 500 companies have reported an aggregate EPS decline of -3.9%...

Client Talking Points

Italy

Getting smoked by the UK at both the Olympics and in real stock market returns – Italy’s MIB Index leads losers again this morning -1.1%, taking its crash back down to -30.8% from the 2015 peak in the Global Equity Bubble… #EuropeImploding (economically) remains a Top 3 Macro Theme @Hedgeye.

Copper

The Doctor looks disinterested in participating in any “demand has bottomed” narrative (US Industrial Production in JUL -0.5% y/y, neg for 11 months in a row), down another -1.0% this morning, leading the decline in the “reflation” trade as USD bounces off it’s immediate-term oversold low vs. both the Yen and Euro.

Yields

Perma Bond Bears continue to cling to the “valuation” call whereas we’ll continue to remind you that long-term yields continue to track the rate of change in long-term GROWTH – get growth right, and I think you’ll get the UST 10-30yr right; from here to 1.63% is a good spot to be buying long-term bonds and their safe-yield proxies.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/16/16 55% 3% 4% 12% 16% 10%
8/17/16 54% 3% 3% 10% 18% 12%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/16/16 55% 9% 12% 36% 48% 30%
8/17/16 54% 9% 9% 30% 55% 36%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

See update on TLT below.

TLT

Eurozone GDP, reported Friday, signaled more of the same, stagnation. With that being said there were small but marginal Euro tailwinds against a U.S. retail sales report and PPI release that was likely dovish on the margin (USD -~20bps on Friday and -~60bps on the week). 

 

In line with our #EuropeSlowing theme, Q2 preliminary GDP slowed across the Eurozone to +0.3% vs. +0.6% in the prior quarter and +1.6% Y/Y for Q2 which was flat on a rate of change basis from Q1.

Looking at specific country results:

 

  • German (0.4% vs 0.7% sequentially) GDP accelerated to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.6% which was probably a minor Euro FX tailwind
  • Italian GDP came in at +0.7% Y/Y which was a deceleration from +1.0% in Q1
  • Greece GDP accelerated to contraction again, printing a measly -0.1% Y/Y from -1.3% in Q1

The Southern Eurozone states continue to implode  

UUP

Recall that a strong retail sales report for June, driven by a positive trend in goods consumption, was a large contributor to our GDP revision for Q2. The headline number, for June, was up +0.6% sequentially with the sequential acceleration in the control group accelerating +7.2% (annualized).

 

Friday’s retail sales report was a different story, and probably a dovish data point for the USD on the margin :

  • The control group printed flat sequentially, +0.0%
  • Retail sales ex. auto and gas printed -0.3% sequentially

Next to retail sales, July headline producer prices decelerated -0.4% vs. +0.5% in June sequentially and -0.2% Y/Y vs. +0.3% Y/Y in June. PPI ex. food and energy came in at 0.0% sequentially vs. +0.4% in June and +0.7% Y/Y from +1.3% in June. #Deflation  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Capital Brief | #Clinton & #Trump Tangled In Controversy On The Campaign Trail app.hedgeye.com/insights/53150… pic.twitter.com/pSP2UgAtqO

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Carry the battle to them.  Don’t let them bring it to you.  Put them on the defensive and don’t ever apologize for anything.”

-Harry S. Truman

 

STAT OF THE DAY

K. Walsh Jennings lost her first Olympic Beach Volleyball match last night.  She had never lost a match in the last 4 Olympics.


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August 17, 2016

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INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.61 1.47 1.57
SPX
S&P 500
2,165 2,195 2,178
RUT
Russell 2000
1,211 1,244 1,231
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,130 5,269 5,227
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,033 17,105 16,596
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,214 10,930 10,676
VIX
Volatility Index
11.02 14.65 12.64
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
94.51 96.53 94.76
EURUSD
Euro
1.10 1.13 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.43 102.49 100.28
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
40.08 46.92 46.58
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.46 2.88 2.62
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,331 1,370 1,356
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.11 2.19 2.17
AAPL
Apple Inc.
103.80 110.32 109.38
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
753 780 764
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
91.80 97.56 95.12
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
62.72 66.66 65.71
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.01 35.90 35.21
HD
Home Depot Inc.
133 138 136
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
34.04 36.99 36.79
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,223 1,260 1,227



Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything Replay | Q&A with Neil Howe: Augmented Reality: Better Than Virtual?

About Everything Replay | Q&A with Neil Howe: Augmented Reality: Better Than Virtual? - AE thumbnail

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the media hype surrounding virtual reality versus "the next big thing [that] may already be sitting in your pocket: augmented reality." Howe breaks down the key takeaways and explains the broader implications for investors.


The Macro Show with Keith McCullough & Demography Sector Head Neil Howe Replay | August 17, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 

 

An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.45%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.38%
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