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Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report: Risk Range On 10-Year Treasury Yield

Takeaway: Ahead of the Friday Jobs Report, risk range on the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.45% to 1.62%.

Ahead of the jobs report the 10-year yield is sitting right in the middle of its risk range (1.45-1.62%) so I’d do nothing on that and/or yield chasing securities – bad jobs print gets you 1.45%; “good” gets you 1.62% and I’m not in the business of guessing the number – no one we know has process driven edge on nailing NFP consistently.

 

Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report: Risk Range On 10-Year Treasury Yield - 10yr risk range

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 8 4

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 8 4

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 8 4

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 8 4

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 8 4

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities 8 4


CHART OF THE DAY: Understanding #TheCycle & #GrowthSlowing

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... I’ll stop there. You get the point. Again, all I’m doing, every day, is measuring and mapping the immediate-term moves relative not only to themselves, but in the context of the entire macro market message… and then contextualizing it across durations.

 

This is Global Macro. There’s a lot of clutter. And lord knows there are a lot of politicized, ideological, and linear opinions that clutter the clutter. But, if we can have the patience to wait and watch, we’ll eventually find simple opportunities."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Understanding #TheCycle & #GrowthSlowing - 08.04.16 chart


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[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Bull Bomb

[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Bull Bomb - Bull bomb cartoon 09.01.2015

 

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. As U.S. equity indices hang out near all-time highs, we bring you another audience favorite.

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford!

Takeaway: Auto loans tightened in 3Q16 for the first since the survey broke out the category in 2Q11.

Editor’s Note: Looking to better understand why General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) auto sales came in light this week? Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials Analyst Josh Steiner and U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford! - ford

 

"Auto Loans:  With concerns rising over auto loans, especially in the subprime space, banks have begun to tighten standards for the first time since the Senior Loan Officer Survey introduced this category.  Although the introduction of the auto loan category post-dates the GFC, the implications of consumer credit tightening are fairly straightforward vis-à-vis the capacity for Main Street credit and consumption. On net, 8.1% of banks reported tightening standards for Auto loans."

 

A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford! - auto loans


The Hedge Fund Draft: Would You Select Stan Druckenmiller Or Janet Yellen?

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye's Keith McCullough and Darius Dale discuss a hypothetical "Hedge Fund Draft", who they would (and wouldn't) pick, and why.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

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Early Look

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